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Prediction markets for Keep

Will AI take over the world and keep humans as pets before the year 2100

Nov 20, 10:19 AMDec 31, 11:01 PM

13.48%chance

405141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1245

925

Will an AI be able to keep us laughing out loud by 2028?

Nov 5, 12:24 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.49%chance

673848

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

927

Does your body keep track of your sleep debt for more than 2 weeks?

Dec 14, 5:50 AMJan 21, 5:50 AM

23.94%chance

191205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

964

If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?

Oct 7, 2:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.97%chance

9757

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

572

Will Georgia (country) keep its territorial integrity until end of 2030? (The situation will not be worse than now)

Sep 21, 11:04 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

59.17%chance

10666

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1204

831

Will a Fields Medalist describe keeping up with new AI math as a "full-time job" before 2029?

May 23, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.36%chance

9387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

806

If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will U.S. real GDP shrink in any quarter of 2027?

Oct 7, 2:51 AMFeb 15, 5:00 PM

32.1%chance

3125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

869

If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will the S&P 500 close 2027 higher than it closed on November 3, 2026?

Oct 7, 2:05 AMDec 31, 9:00 PM

72.78%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

960

If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will Trump's approval rating be 40% or higher on January 1, 2028?

Oct 7, 2:14 AMJan 2, 5:00 PM

23.5%chance

481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

980

If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will Congress ban its members from trading individual stocks before Jan 3, 2029?

Oct 7, 2:50 AMJan 3, 5:00 PM

15%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will Trump veto at least 5 bills in 2027?

Oct 7, 2:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "To Understand History, Keep Former Population..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 22, 11:59 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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