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Prediction markets for Keep

Will AI take over the world and keep humans as pets before the year 2100

Nov 20, 10:19 AMDec 31, 11:01 PM

20%chance

384523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

843

Will an AI be able to keep us laughing out loud by 2028?

Nov 5, 12:24 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

77%chance

653811

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

890

If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?

Mar 8, 9:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.88%chance

352392

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1355

256

Will Sweden keep being a democracy until 2030?

Mar 28, 12:43 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

97%chance

262328

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2799

909

Does your body keep track of your sleep debt for more than 2 weeks?

Dec 14, 5:50 AMJan 21, 5:50 AM

23.94%chance

191205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

964

Will labour keep their majority for over ten years?

Jul 4, 11:25 PMJul 5, 8:59 PM

30.59%chance

13831

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1506

664

Will Georgia (country) keep its territorial integrity until end of 2030? (The situation will not be worse than now)

Sep 21, 11:04 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

57.1%chance

9610

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

867

Would Starlink keep providing coverage in case of an all out nuclear war?

Jan 15, 11:44 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.21%chance

21576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

922

Will all characters in movie have an option to have a person's name "hover over" their name so that the face-blind can keep track of who is who, by 2027?

Feb 8, 7:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.25%chance

11211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1114

959

If someone accepts my offer to take their mask off on a plane for $20, will they follow though on keeping it off?

Mar 14, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.27%chance

12183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

962

Will "Help keep AI under human control: Palisade Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 20, 4:33 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "To Understand History, Keep Former Population..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 22, 11:59 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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