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Prediction markets for Keep

Will AI take over the world and keep humans as pets before the year 2100

Nov 20, 10:19 AMDec 31, 11:01 PM

14.07%chance

405091

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

933

Will an AI be able to keep us laughing out loud by 2028?

Nov 5, 12:24 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

75.31%chance

663836

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1186

915

If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?

Mar 8, 9:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.89%chance

372468

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1326

282

Does your body keep track of your sleep debt for more than 2 weeks?

Dec 14, 5:50 AMJan 21, 5:50 AM

23.94%chance

191205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

964

Will labour keep their majority for over ten years?

Jul 4, 11:25 PMJul 5, 8:59 PM

30.59%chance

13831

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1506

664

Will Georgia (country) keep its territorial integrity until end of 2030? (The situation will not be worse than now)

Sep 21, 11:04 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

57.1%chance

9610

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

867

Would Starlink keep providing coverage in case of an all out nuclear war?

Jan 15, 11:44 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.21%chance

21576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

922

Will a Fields Medalist describe keeping up with new AI math as a "full-time job" before 2029?

May 23, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.36%chance

9387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

806

Will all characters in movie have an option to have a person's name "hover over" their name so that the face-blind can keep track of who is who, by 2027?

Feb 8, 7:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.57%chance

12261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

951

If someone accepts my offer to take their mask off on a plane for $20, will they follow though on keeping it off?

Mar 14, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.27%chance

12183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

962

Will "The World Keeps Getting Saved and You Don’t N..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 17, 4:29 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

Will "To Understand History, Keep Former Population..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 22, 11:59 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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