OptionProbability
Any model announced before 2034
Any model announced before 2033
Any model announced before 2031
Any model announced before 2032
Any model announced before 2030
Any open-weights model announced before 2030
Any model announced before 2029
Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030
Any model announced by Google before 2030
Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030
Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030
Any model announced by Meta before 2030
Any model announced before 2028
Any model announced by SSI before 2030
Any model announced by xAI before 2030
Grok 5
GPT-6
Gemini 4
Any model announced before 2027
Claude 3.5 Opus
OpenAI o4
Fable/Mythos 5.5
Gemini 3.5
Claude Opus 4.9
GPT-5
Grok 3
OpenAI o3
DeepSeek-V4
Any model announced before 2026
Llama 4
GPT-4.5
Gemini 2.5
Gemini 3
Any Claude 4 model
Any Claude 5 model
grok-4
Sonnet 4.5
Kimi K2
GPT-5.1
Claude 4.5 Opus
Claude 5 Opus
GPT-5.2
Any model announced before July 1, 2026
Opus 4.6
GPT-5.4 (x-high fast)
GPT-5.5
Muse Spark (from Meta)
Any Claude Mythos model (first version released)
Opus 4.7
Opus 4.8
GPT-5.6
GLM-5.2
88
84
83
79
74
72
65
61
56
52
49
44
26
19
18
13
10
6
3
2
0
Other
2.5h - 3h
3h - 3.5h
3.5h - 4h
1.5h - 2h
2h - 2.5h
4h - 4.5h
4.5h - 5h
5h - 5.5h
<1h
1h - 1.5h
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1130
885