OptionProbability
Any model announced before 2034
Any model announced before 2033
Any model announced before 2032
Any model announced before 2031
Any model announced before 2030
Any open-weights model announced before 2030
Any model announced before 2029
Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030
Any model announced by Google before 2030
Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030
Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030
Any model announced before 2028
Any model announced by xAI before 2030
Any model announced by Meta before 2030
Any model announced by SSI before 2030
Gemini 4
GPT-6
Any model announced before 2027
Any model announced before July 1, 2026
Claude 3.5 Opus
Any Claude 5 model
Grok 5
Claude 5 Opus
Gemini 3.5
OpenAI o4
GPT-5.5
DeepSeek-V4
GPT-5
Grok 3
OpenAI o3
Any model announced before 2026
Llama 4
GPT-4.5
Gemini 2.5
Gemini 3
Any Claude 4 model
grok-4
Sonnet 4.5
Kimi K2
GPT-5.1
Claude 4.5 Opus
GPT-5.2
Opus 4.6
GPT-5.4 (x-high fast)
90
88
86
85
81
80
73
72
65
60
58
56
54
27
24
23
14
13
12
10
6
0
Other
3h - 3.5h
2.5h - 3h
3.5h - 4h
4h - 4.5h
2h - 2.5h
4.5h - 5h
1.5h - 2h
1h - 1.5h
5h - 5.5h
<1h
11
9
7
4
2
1T+
2T+
1.5T+
2.5T+
3T+
3.5T+
4T+
4.5T+
5T+
100
94
93
50
42
38
25
22
17