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Prediction markets for Kinds of Kindness

Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce still be in a relationship of some kind at EOY 2026?

Feb 11, 9:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

93.92%chance

7112133

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6777

271

San Francisco gets some kind of congestion zone pricing system by mid 2030

Jan 15, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

36%chance

348496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

750

What kind of cars will be most sold in 2035?

Mar 8, 3:48 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

433292

OptionProbability

Normal EVs

Self-driving EVs (only non-flying)

Normal combustion engine cars

Flying cars

65

34

11

2

What will the first metropolitan area to live up to some kind of selfgoverning/libertarian dream? before 2035

Sep 26, 5:15 AMOct 3, 6:59 AM

14886

OptionProbability

Prospera

There won't be one

Praxis

Other

Neom

Akon City

San Francisco

Solano county/Flannery Associates city

65

21

5

5

2

1

1

1

What kind of cancer does Charles III have?

Feb 8, 3:42 PMDec 16, 4:59 AM

21785

OptionProbability

Bladder

Pancreatic

Other

Rectal

Prostate

Penis

literal crayfish

57

18

9

8

3

3

3

Will the Brazilian judiciary introduce some kind of AI jurisdiction before 2030?

Dec 26, 3:45 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

48.51%chance

18772

OptionVotes

YES

NO

340

78

Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030?

Apr 3, 3:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.62%chance

15703

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

833

Will the EA forum support users estimating values in posts and then supplying some kind of median, by 2030?

Oct 3, 10:37 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

45.63%chance

13471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

825

Which kind of computers will be the standard for AI models in 2034?

Mar 15, 6:13 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

17375

OptionProbability

Classical computers (CPUs, GPUs, TPUs etc.)

Hybrid system (combining various different technologies)

Optical computers

Quantum computers

Neuromorphic computers

Something else

70

16

7

3

2

2

Will I receive any kind of gene therapy created using CRISPR before I die?

Feb 7, 1:48 PMFeb 8, 6:59 AM

62%chance

12116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

172

133

Will there be mining of any kind on the moon before there is a population of over 200 people on the moon at once

Mar 30, 8:26 PMDec 7, 4:59 AM

67.02%chance

691

OptionVotes

NO

YES

272

150

Will the next neural network architectural discovery explicitly incorporate some kind of self-reflection?

Apr 18, 9:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

47.62%chance

225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

135

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