OptionProbability
Crewed mission to Phobos
USA adds 52nd state
24th Doctor Who regenerates into the 25th
President with Green Eyes elected
UK has a queen again
Olympics hosted in Japan again
ChatGPT 10 releases
RSA-2048 cracked
African company or country lands on moon
Harlem Globetrotters lose again
2000 Pokemon Released or franchise ceases
Batman enters the public domain
Room temperature superconductor discovered
The Beatles music enters the public domain
Japan Bans Whaling
Human walks on mars
Hershey's reintroduces the Gold bar
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 1B
human dies on the moon
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 500M
Pokemon Card sells for $10M
Olympics hosted in Africa
Pickleball in the Olympics
Norway Bans Whaling
First hispanic USA president
Longest suspension bridge record broken
Team Fortress 3 releases
Country claims the Bir Tawil triangle
End support date for Windows 12
Grand Theft Auto 7 releases
USA Adds 51st state
The first $10T market cap company
USA fully ends embargo on Cuba
The next 9.0 magnitude earthquake
Iceland Bans Whaling
The version after Windows 12 releases
EU reaches 30 member states
Centennial Lightbulb burns out
Underwater hold breath world record broken
Bugs Bunny enters public domain
Superman enters the public domain
Grimace Shake returns to McDonalds
Sitting USA president visits Belize for the first time
Peppa Pig ends
First asian USA president (as judged by self ID & manifold opinion after inauguration)
19th Doctor Who regenerates into 20th
Destiny retires from regular streaming
Bitcoin reaches $200K USD
Windows 11 end support date
Taika Waititi's Star Wars film releases
India hosts the Olympics
China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict
1500 Pokemon Released
Star Citizen releases or company ceases
Family Guy ends
Civilization 8 releases
Kingdom Hearts 4 releases
First female USA president
Two grand slams in one MLB game by one player again
South Park ends
Manifold reaches 20K MAU
ChatGPT 7 releases
Simpsons ends
Xi no longer in power in China
Human walks on moon again
Blood Meridian movie release
Trump Dies
Chicago ends on Broadway
Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases
Half Life 3 releases
Manifold reaches 40K MAU
USA's Doris Miller aircraft carrier launched
1300 Pokemon Released
Another MLB perfect game pitched
James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases
Book of Mormon ends on Broadway
One piece manga ends
Human runs official marathon under 2h
Skibidi Toilet ends
Another Five Nights at Freddy's movie comes out
a USA president impeached again
Putin no longer in power in Russia
Burj Khalifa record for tallest building broken
Bitcoin reaches $150K USD
Grand Theft Auto 6 releases
First Trillionaire (USD)
marijuana no longer federally a schedule 1 drug in the USA
ChatGPT 6 releases
Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire
Shrek 5 releases
Sagrada Familia Church completed
Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)
Price of gold hits $5000/oz
The first $5T market cap company
USA discontinues or changes penny coin
Death Stranding 2 releases
First $100B revenue media franchise
New Pope after Francis
Civilization 7 releases
Bitcoin reaches $100K USD
Mario 64 120star speedrun WR 1h36m00s or less
Dallas Mavericks play in the NBA championship
Sweden joins NATO
82
77
74
73
73
72
71
69
68
67
66
66
66
65
64
63
63
61
61
59
58
57
57
57
56
55
54
54
53
52
49
49
47
47
45
44
44
42
41
40
40
38
38
38
37
37
37
35
35
35
35
34
33
33
33
33
32
31
31
31
31
30
29
29
28
27
26
25
24
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
18
18
17
17
17
13
12
10
9
8
7
6
6
5
4
3
2
1
OptionProbability
Left 4 Dead 3
Portal 3
Team Fortress 3
Far Cry 8
Counter Strike 3
Star Craft 3
Grand Theft Auto 7
Crysis 4
Under Night In-Birth 3
Monaco 3
Star Citizen
Tony Hawk Pro Skater 6
Mega Man 12
Saints Row (6th main game)
Red Dead Redemption 3
Banjo Kazooie 3
Tekken 9
Age of Empires 5
Fallout 5
Bloody Roar 5
Fable 4
Physint (Kojima stealth game)
Watch Dogs 4 (after Legion)
Armored Core 7
Soul Calibur 7
Bayonetta 4
Romance of the Three Kingdoms 15
Samurai Shodown (after 2019 release)
Final Fantasy 18
Earth Defense Force 7
Radio the Universe
Crackdown 4
Dead Island 3
Dead Space 4
Dead or Alive 7
Pikmin 5
Mass Effect 5
Wolf Among Us 2
BlazBlue (after Cross Tag Battle)
Dynasty Origins 12
Devil May Cry 6
Riot's MMORPG
ARK Survival Evolved 2
Mario Kart 10
Bioshock 4 (after Infinite)
Marathon
Diablo 5
Dynasty Warriors 11 (after origins)
rivals of aether 3
Kingdom Hearts 4
Far Cry 7
Civilization 8
Hearts of Iron 5
Final Fantasy 17
Street Fighter 7
Dragon Quest 12
Darksiders 4
Super Smash Bros (after Ultimate)
Mortal Kombat after 'MK1' (MK12)
A Plague Tale 3
Need for Speed (26th main game)
Tropico 7
Half Life 3
Dynasty Warriors Origins
Gran Turismo 8
Guilty Gear (after Strive)
The Sims 5
Monaco 2
Control 2
King of Fighters 16
Hytale
Splatoon 4
Command and Conquer 5
ARMA 4
Haunted Chocolatier
Persona 6
Witcher 4 Polaris
Fatal Fury: City of the Wolves
Elder Scrolls 6
Virtua Fighter 6
Next Gears of War (E Day)
Grand Theft Auto 6
deadlock / neon Prime (valve game)
S&box (Sandbox)
Resident Evil 9
Europa Universalis 5
Outer Worlds 2
Vampire the Masquerade Bloodlines 2
Little Nightmares 3
2XKO
Silent Hill f (the next main game)
Skate 4
Silksong (Hollow Knight)
Killing Floor 3
Death Stranding 2
Mario Kart 9
Monster Hunter Wilds
Civilization 7
Slitterhead
Rivals of Aether 2
Mario Party 12 (after Super Mario Party)
Frostpunk 2
Prince of Persia after Lost Crown
Hades 2
94
92
90
88
87
86
85
85
85
82
80
78
77
76
75
75
74
74
73
68
67
66
65
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
55
55
55
55
55
55
54
54
53
53
53
52
51
50
50
44
44
44
44
43
42
42
41
40
40
40
40
40
39
39
38
37
37
36
36
35
35
34
32
32
30
30
29
28
27
25
25
22
22
21
21
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
OptionProbability
Neuralink trials have happened with volunteer humans
New Pope after Francis
three or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved
five or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved
Bitcoin has reached $100K at some point
Gold has reached $2500/oz at some point
ETH Ethereum has reached $2800 USD (again)
Ethereum ETH has reached $4000 again
xkcd is still producing new comics at least once a month
USA's Supreme Court is still 9 justices (does not get expanded)
Taylor Swift has been married
publicly available ChatGPT or similar LLM can solve sudokus reliably
Mr Beast has 500M or more subscribers on Youtube
True Detective Season 5 released
Elon is still at least a partial owner of Twitter
Super Smash Bros Melee still a popular esport
No humans on the moon since Apollo
S&box fully released (Facepunch's new garry's mod like game)
Putin still leader of Russia
Fortnite Crossover with the Simpsons
Xi still leader of China
Zuckerberg still CEO of facebook/meta
Destiny is still regularly livestreaming
Palworld is still able to be played through Steam
George RR Martin has released the next GoT / ASOIAF book (The Winds of Winter)
Slavoj Zizek still giving public talks
a twitter account has reached 500M followers
Charles still King of UK
Hiroyuki Nishimura is still the owner of 4chan
One Piece manga is still going (original series)
The tenth drop of the pitch drop experiment has fallen
Team Fortress 2 is still receiving periodic blog posts / small updates
Flo is still the progressive mascot (the actress still working )
At least one of the other prediction market websites has gone out of business
Iceland, Norway, or Japan has banned whaling
2h marathon has been officially broken by a human
@strutheo is still on Manifold, with the same username
the game Rust is still receiving regular updates with new content (not just bug / small fixes)
Avatar still has the record for highest worldwide movie gross on BoxOfficeMojo
Hytale has fully released to the public (not just a beta)
Winner of 2028 election is Democrat
Nintendo still manufacturing Switch
Apex Legends is still receiving updates and servers are online
The Nintendo Switch successor console has sold at least 65 million units
Total mana bet on Manifold has peaked to 10B in one day at least once
Family Guy has ended
the Rmax of the top non distributed supercomputer is at least 3000 PFlop/Sec (according to top500.org)
Kingdom Hearts 4 has released
Jared Fogel OR Fetty Wap is out of prison
prong.studio still operational and selling products
Chameleon Twist 3 has released (or another sequel)
Kojima's Physint game has released
Bitcoin has reached $150K at least one time
Old School Runescape has released Sailing and at least 1 other new skill
Coyote vs Acme releases or leaks
Weak AGI achieved, as indicated by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic
Magic the Gathering card has sold for $1M or more (other than the One Ring!)
Petco will have filed for bankruptcy
Manifold MAU has spiked to 40k+ at least two separate weeks/occasions
A North American team has won a Dota 2 International for the first time since 2015
Manifold has sold $40K or more mana in the last 30 days before market close
A second feature length South Park movie has released (like South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut)
at least one spider man movie releases each year
Star Citizen has fully released to the public (not just a beta)
Chat GPT 7 or higher available for public use
At least one of Paul Biya, Pope Francis, Ali Khamenei is still in power
Annoying Orange youtube channel is still uploading at least one video a month
jd vance has been president or wins the election to be one
Palestine / Israel will have come to an agreement on borders (post Oct 7)
Russia AND ROC are both forbidden from entering the Olympics still
Nintendo ends online play and other online services for Switch (as they did for WiiU and 3DS on April 8th 2024)
there will be a USA federal holiday in August (confirmed happening in 2028 or next year in 2029)
Rabbit is still selling R1 (or a sequel product) and it can be purchased by the average consumer
Manifold has collapsed / bankrupt at least once already
The New England Patriots have either won a Super Bowl (2024-2027 seasons) or clinched the division (2028)
The record for youngest Best Actor Academy Award Broken (Adrien Brody, The Pianist, age 29)
Build a Bear will have filed for bankruptcy or been bought
Ukraine-Russia war still ongoing
X (Twitter) brand has changed again (either back to Twitter or something other than X)
Amazon #1 book is a self-help book
A new official weapon has been added to Team Fortress 2 since after 2017
1200 or more official pokemon
NFL has an official expansion team in Europe somewhere
I'll be dead.
Amazon #1 book is by a politician or musician
China - Taiwan war / invasion begins
There will be a breakthrough in nuclear weaponry
Dwarf Fortress ceases active development
China has landed a human on the moon
doomsday clock is 100 seconds or more from midnight
Taylor Swift has been divorced
All 9 current Supreme Court justices from today (Jan 2024) are still serving
Turkey has a higher GDP (PPP) than the United Kingdom
a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons
Josh Shapiro is the President-elect of the United States
Mana can be donated to charity through Manifold at the same rate (1 cent = 1 mana)
Chat GPT 8.5 or higher released for public use
someone has reached 2900 FIDE chess rating
a paper for LK99 or another room temperature superconductor is peer reviewed and replicated
Trump has served at least 1 full day in jail/prison (not at home)
JB Pritzker is the President-elect of the United States
Gretchen Whitmer is the President-elect of the United States
Jared Polis is the President-elect of the United States
No humans exist
Manifold Love is still getting updates or community support/events
Jimmy Carter is still alive
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
92
91
90
86
85
84
83
82
79
79
77
75
74
74
73
73
71
71
71
70
69
69
67
67
66
66
65
62
62
60
59
57
55
55
55
55
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
49
49
47
45
45
44
44
40
40
38
37
37
35
35
35
34
34
34
33
33
31
31
30
30
29
29
28
28
27
27
26
24
24
23
20
20
20
19
19
19
18
15
14
13
11
10
7
5
3
3
1
0
0
OptionProbability
Sweden joins NATO
Death Stranding 2 out
Sailing skill releases for Runescape (Old School)
chat gpt 5 releases
Donald Trump OR Vince McMahon OR Hunter Biden OR Alec Baldwin OR Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime
bitcoin reaches $80k usd on google
Bitcoin reaches $70k USD on google
the end of 2024
the end of 2025
Ides of March 2025
Jimmy Carter passes away or is murdered
Bitcoin reaches 100k usd
Chapter 1200 comes out and he still has not found the one piece
Pluton revealed or used or production started
Imu Face Reveal
Gta 6 comes out
manifold reaches 2000 engaged users
Taylor Swift married
reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread
King Charles no longer king of UK
ChatGPT 6 released
Officially supported Netflix app for Apple vision pro
OnePieceExplained reaches 50k subscribers https://www.youtube.com/@onepieceexplained
Noam chomsky passes away
kaidou is seen again in the manga
Kingdom Hearts 4 out
arlong is seen again in the manga
UFC 350 takes place
Datura Lacroye releases 3 original albums and 3 cover albums
Juice wrld's the party never ends will drop
ukraine joins NATO
nuclear detonation or test happens (jan 2024 onward)
dragon ball super manga ends
Manifold user charts on the Billboard 200
Sanji finds all blue
ukraine joins EU
donald trump spends a day in prison
manifold reaches 3000 engaged users
Pigs Fly
one of the straw hats dies
human sets foot on moon again
China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict
hunter biden serves a day in jail
Destiny retires from streaming
6th bitcoin halving
Windows 12 end of life date
someone reaches 1B in mana profit on Manifold
Buggy the clown dies
Singularity happens
Assange extradited to the USA
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
98
97
96
93
84
83
81
73
73
67
66
66
65
60
57
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
47
43
43
40
37
24
22
22
10
3
2
0
OptionProbability
Taylor Swift engaged
Sweden joins NATO
Death Stranding 2 out
Hollow Knight Silksong released
Sailing skill releases for runescape
Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way
Mr Beast reaches 300M subs on Youtube
Vince McMahon OR Hunter Biden OR Alec Baldwin OR Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime
Super Bowl LIX kickoff
Chat gpt 6 releases
Taylor Swift married
King Charles no longer king of UK
Windows 12 released
Kingdom Hearts 4 out
reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread
5th bitcoin halving
Haunted Chocolatier releases
twitter releases a p2p payment system to free or all premium users
manifold reaches 4000 engaged users
Star Citizen releases
someone reaches 10B profit on manifold
a twitter account reaches 300M followers for the first time
Uber or Lyft cease operating (shut down / acquired and merged / etc)
6th bitcoin halving
Bryan Johnson will still be alive when it happens
ukraine joins nato
assange extradited to usa
LK-99 or another room temperature superconductor is reproduced in a peer reviewed journal
a Human has died on moon
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
97
95
95
94
93
92
91
90
90
85
80
80
76
73
72
60
54
31
25
19
OptionProbability
Death Stranding 2 releases
Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way
someone reaches 5 million mana profit on manifold
Bitcoin reaches $100K
nvidia more valuable than microsoft and apple
Jimmy Carter dies
Strutheo reaches the top of the creator leaderboard
Someone with the last name 'Trump' wins a US presidential election
Manifest 2025 ends
GTA 6 is released
windows 12 released by microsoft
Volodymyr Zelenskyy stops being President of Ukraine
king charles no longer king of uk
Taika Waititi 's star wars movie releases first trailer
Joe Biden dies
Star Citizen OR Hytale OR YandareSimulator releases fully to the public
Official sub 2:00 marathon
chat gpt 6 released
Human steps foot on the moon again
Vladimir Putin dies
Lex Fridman interviews Putin
Moldova joins NATO
Kingdom Hearts 4 released
Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users at least one time
Credible reports of AGI
Woman becomes President of the United States
Ukraine's ranking on the Corruption Perception Index for all countries improves to 80th or better (chart is at the bottom of this article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine)
One Piece manga final chapter and series ends
Tom Scott's THIS VIDEO HAS X VIEWS reaches 100M
George R R Martin releases ASOIAF The Winds of Winter (his next Game of Thrones Book )
Sam Bankman-Fried is released from prison
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce end their relationship by any means
China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan
Someone reaches a 2900 FIDE rating in Chess
Team Fortress 3 announced or revealed (not an unconfirmed leak)
The United States leaves NATO
assange extradited to usa
A market about room temperature semiconductors with at least 200 traders resolves in favor of the 'believers' (and stays resolved for a week)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
95
90
87
81
81
74
73
72
66
65
65
64
62
59
52
51
51
50
45
41
36
31
29
28
26
17
7
6
OptionProbability
Monster Hunter WIlds
Red Dead Redemption 3
Haunted Chocolatier
Far Cry 7
Fable
Elder Scrolls 6
Hades 2
Grand Theft Auto 6
Kingdom Hearts 4
S&box
Slitterhead
The Last of Us 3
Persona 6
2XKO
Silksong
Skate 4
Rivals of Aether 2
Splatoon 4
Frostpunk 2
Hearts of Iron 5
Civilization 7
ARMA 4
Death Stranding 2
Black Myth: Wukong
Killing Floor 3
90
89
87
84
78
72
62
60
59
52
50
50
34
29
27
27
24
21
18
16
15
10
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Death Stranding 2 out
festivus 2025
hollow knight silksong release date known
hollow knight silksong released
Taylor Swift married
Kingdom Hearts 4 out
GTA 6 released
Next Dune film releases (3rd one)
Windows 12 released
Bitcoin falls below $50,000
Trump announces VP running mate
reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread
Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way
King Charles no longer king of UK
assange extradited to usa
elden ring dlc releases
halloween 2024
luffy finds the one piece in the manga
lego releases a new bionicle
Destiny surpasses Hasan's sub count on YouTube
Sam Altman leaves openai
Ethereum reaches $10K USD
US presidential inauguration of a Democrat
6th bitcoin halving
bitcoin drops back down to hit 10k USD
100
100
100
100
95
94
93
92
71
54
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
36
36
31
23
20
13
OptionProbability
Star Wars (anything from the universe: lightsaber, the force, a jedi/sith…etc.)
Spider-Man / Marvel
Wall-E
Coco
Atlantis
Princess and the Frog
Robin Hood
The Great Mouse Detective
The Country Bears
Indiana Jones
Treasure Planet
Turning Red
84
79
73
67
66
54
50
50
50
50
34
24
OptionProbability
2025
2026
2027
2028+
Never
2024
37
18
16
16
11
2
OptionProbability
YES
NO
91
83
OptionVotes
YES
NO
114
95
