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Prediction markets for Knowledge

Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?

Sep 20, 1:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

6.15%chance

16150732

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10883

1997

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

31.23%chance

142358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1627

398

Will there be mass layoffs of knowledge workers as a direct result of AI by 2030?

Oct 10, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.72%chance

221532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

940

Will GPT-5 knowledge cutoff is in 2024?

Jan 6, 12:23 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

73.63%chance

111170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1671

598

Evidence of Biden's staff knowledge of his cancer during his presidency before end of 2025

May 20, 8:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.71%chance

221081

OptionVotes

YES

NO

406

25

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.83%chance

22864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

534

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

819

Will AI benefit common knowledge?

Apr 13, 3:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80.5%chance

17445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

906

Will "The Best Tacit Knowledge Videos on Every Subject" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Apr 1, 1:54 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

76.95%chance

15437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1218

808

Will Denizhan Akar still use Google Docs as his sole personal knowledge management system by end of 2025?

Feb 28, 11:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12%chance

8201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

231

96

Will it be common knowledge that farmed fish, eggs and chicken produce more suffering than other animal products? (2050)

Apr 13, 2:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.21%chance

484

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

100

Will the average SAT scores of The Knowledge Society (TKS) students be higher in 2025 than in 2020?

Mar 11, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.62%chance

321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

96

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