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By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.99%chance

813504838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

57689

10565

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Nov 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

22%chance

10248166

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1560

1107

[Metaculus] Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

Jul 8, 2:52 PMJan 2, 7:00 PM

58.63%chance

194930

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

840

Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026?

Jun 24, 10:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.49%chance

282943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1348

742

Will there exist a scholarly consensus in the year 3000 affirming the existence of Jesus as a historical figure?

Jul 28, 12:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.52%chance

311943

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

970

[Metaculus] Will Python still be most popular programming language at the end of 2030?

Apr 15, 2:22 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

70.93%chance

421450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

954

Will epigenetic reprogramming-related pathways rank among the top ten pathways that improve neural graft survival?

Nov 24, 5:06 AMMar 24, 4:05 AM

73.65%chance

61024

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1672

598

[Metaculus] If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, wil...l Tehran within one year?

Jul 10, 6:57 PMJan 2, 5:00 AM

36.8%chance

4710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

763

[Metaculus] Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?

Nov 3, 5:26 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

21.94%chance

14672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1338

873

[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?

Nov 9, 12:21 AMJan 2, 12:00 AM

23.98%chance

17523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

977

[Metaculus] Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

Dec 7, 1:29 PMMar 2, 11:00 AM

60.81%chance

13379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

842

[Metaculus] Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

May 18, 4:42 PMJan 2, 12:00 PM

49.52%chance

2204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

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