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Known Origin News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.81%chance

834517320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58416

10485

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Nov 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.62%chance

10248316

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1539

1185

[Metaculus] Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

Jul 8, 2:52 PMJan 2, 7:00 PM

60.61%chance

204980

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1241

806

Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026?

Jun 24, 10:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.44%chance

293090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

859

Will there exist a scholarly consensus in the year 3000 affirming the existence of Jesus as a historical figure?

Jul 28, 12:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.52%chance

311943

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

970

[Metaculus] If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, wil...l Tehran within one year?

Jul 10, 6:57 PMJan 2, 5:00 AM

36.72%chance

51508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

762

[Metaculus] Will Python still be most popular programming language at the end of 2030?

Apr 15, 2:22 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

71.07%chance

431455

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

952

[Metaculus] Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before...interference with Taiwan?

Jul 10, 10:57 PMJan 2, 12:00 PM

25.24%chance

91337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1721

581

[Metaculus] Will Poland legalize gay marriage by 2030?

Nov 9, 12:20 AMJan 2, 5:00 AM

17.3%chance

231317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1491

854

[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?

Nov 9, 12:21 AMJan 2, 12:00 AM

23.98%chance

17523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

977

[Metaculus] Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

Dec 7, 1:29 PMMar 2, 11:00 AM

60.81%chance

13379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

842

[Metaculus] Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

May 18, 4:42 PMJan 2, 12:00 PM

49.52%chance

2204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

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