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Prediction markets for Koko

Kokotajlo v.s. Wyeth: METR task length 8+ hours in March 2027?

Aug 16, 7:54 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

4422764

OptionProbability

Kokotajlo wins: longer than 8 hours

Wyeth wins: shorter than 8 hours

96

4

Will Daniel Kokotajlo be able to sell his OpenAI equity at the next tender offer?

May 27, 9:26 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

82.42%chance

213066

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2165

462

Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027

Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.99%chance

13210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

971

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