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Prediction markets for Labour Day

Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2.73%chance

9331343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5971

167

Hipkins+Luxon+Peters all leaders on day of next election?

Dec 23, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.15%chance

1211028

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4001

281

Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls?

Apr 28, 9:13 AMDec 31, 10:06 AM

197162

OptionProbability

Other

Reform

Labour

Conservatives

Greens

39

29

19

10

4

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Jun 20, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

155892

OptionProbability

**Assuming Burnham is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

**Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

31

6

Will Labour form a 2 term government?

May 23, 12:47 PMSep 1, 10:59 PM

28.76%chance

245388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1599

645

How many MPs will Labour have when the next UK General Election is called?

Nov 30, 6:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91748

OptionProbability

Above 390

Above 395

Above 400

Above 405

Above 410

Above 415

85

78

66

19

7

5

When will the next UK general election be held?

Dec 16, 12:31 AMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

6635

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2030

Before Jan 2029

Before Jan 2028

Before Jan 2027

Before Jan 2026

98

40

24

3

0

Will Andy Burnham lead Labour to the next general election?

Jun 19, 8:41 PMAug 15, 11:59 PM

74.47%chance

8575

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1341

854

Will the next British Genaral election take place before the regular deadline in 2029?

Mar 1, 8:58 PMAug 15, 10:00 PM

96.19%chance

8475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

503

20

Will Reform drop their commitment to Proportional Representation in their next manifesto?

Feb 8, 10:03 PMAug 14, 10:59 PM

61.89%chance

9320

OptionVotes

NO

YES

171

132

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

320

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