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Prediction markets for Labs

Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?

Mar 31, 12:45 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

32.5%chance

9739689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

1001

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.25%chance

14918068

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10080

9921

Will I deem Donut Lab's solid state battery claims in their video to have been false one year from now?

Jan 6, 7:00 AMJan 6, 9:59 PM

90%chance

7917628

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6472

4887

Will HOC beat the big AI labs to AGI?

Sep 8, 4:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.62%chance

1913344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3256

307

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.28%chance

8911284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3759

339

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

216569

OptionProbability

2028-2030

2031-2033

2025-2027

2034-2036

2037-2040

29

24

20

15

12

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

226519

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

Before 2026

68

8

7

7

7

0

Will a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?

Aug 27, 3:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.69%chance

321569

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1382

363

Will McDonald's offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2030?

Apr 5, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.89%chance

341434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2250

1738

WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?

May 27, 2:14 PMMay 26, 11:59 PM

73.57%chance

12508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

1021

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

Jan 23, 6:16 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

54%chance

3180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

923

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

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