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Prediction markets for Labs

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.1%chance

194280263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10838

9495

Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?

Sep 20, 1:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

1.16%chance

16583111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

38546

1271

Will my startup Retis Labs become a unicorn, over 1 billion USD market cap, before the the end of 2026?

Jul 5, 6:19 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.45%chance

5280920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23543

8150

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45.93%chance

14717706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10226

9709

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.28%chance

8911284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3759

339

Will HOC beat the big AI labs to AGI?

Sep 8, 4:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.82%chance

1710838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2732

366

Which AI lab releases an LLM in December?

Nov 30, 1:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

304840

OptionProbability

Google DeepMind

DeepSeek

Alibaba Qwen

Mistral

OpenAI

xAI

Z.ai

Moonshot

Meta SuperIntelligence

Nvidia

Anthropic

100

100

100

100

94

56

43

27

19

18

16

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

174419

OptionProbability

2025-2027

2028-2030

2031-2033

2034-2036

2037-2040

29

26

21

13

11

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

183986

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

Before 2026

66

7

7

5

5

3

If Covid is a lab leak, which lab did it leak from?

Dec 30, 11:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

221641

OptionProbability

Wuhan Institute of Virology, Wuchang campus

Wuhan Institute of Virology, Jiangxia campus

Wuhan CDC

UNC

Fort Detrick

Wuhan Institute of Biological Products

Wuhan University

Other

VECTOR lab in Russia

Canadian National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg, Manitoba

Huazhong Agricultural University in Wuhan

30

15

15

13

11

5

4

3

2

2

2

Will McDonald's offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2030?

Apr 5, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.89%chance

341434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2250

1738

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

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