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Prediction markets for Labs

Will I deem Donut Lab's solid state battery claims in their video to have been false one year from now?

Jan 6, 7:00 AMJan 6, 9:59 PM

92.96%chance

8722115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9037

4653

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.57%chance

15118150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10008

9979

Will HOC beat the big AI labs to AGI?

Sep 8, 4:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.62%chance

1913344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3256

307

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.54%chance

8911423

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3621

355

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.82%chance

288253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14639

6831

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

216702

OptionProbability

2028-2030

2031-2033

2025-2027

2034-2036

2037-2040

30

25

19

14

12

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

226519

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

Before 2026

68

8

7

7

7

0

Will McDonald's offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2030?

Apr 5, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.32%chance

351464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2280

1720

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

Jan 23, 6:16 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

44%chance

9898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

886

Any American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?

Feb 25, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.54%chance

20668

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

796

WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?

May 27, 2:14 PMMay 26, 11:59 PM

73.57%chance

12508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

1021

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

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