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Prediction markets for Land

Will a human land on the moon by 2028?

Feb 9, 6:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

30862608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12085

336

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?

Mar 18, 12:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.65%chance

15127192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4827

377

Will China land men on the moon before the USA?

Jan 5, 9:00 PMJan 13, 7:59 AM

40.64%chance

8824662

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2717

2277

When will SpaceX land on the moon?

Jan 9, 3:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3722715

OptionProbability

>= 2032

2029

2028

2030

2031

Before 2027

2027

40

17

15

14

12

1

1

Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars?

Dec 28, 12:30 AMFeb 22, 9:22 PM

37.05%chance

14519125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2422

1176

Global CO2 emissions in 2050 (excluding land use)?

Jul 2, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1911652

OptionProbability

40 - 49.99

10 - 19.99

0 - 9.99

30 - 39.99

50 - 59.99

20 - 29.99

Below 0

60 - 69.99

70 - 79.99

80 - 89.99

90+

25

16

12

12

11

10

7

2

2

1

1

Will SpaceX land on the MOON by Dec 31st 2029?

Jan 11, 3:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

29%chance

318961

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1642

253

Which month will Starship HLS land on the Moon?

May 28, 2:12 AMDec 31, 2:04 AM

136911

OptionProbability

Other

HLS Cancelled

November 2027

December 2027

January 2028

February 2028

March 2028

April 2028

May 2028

June 2028

July 2028

July 2027

August 2027

September 2027

October 2027

August 2028

September 2028

November 2028

June 2027

October 2028

April 2027

May 2027

January 2026

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026

January 2027

February 2027

March 2027

15

14

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?

Oct 16, 11:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.7%chance

526741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2591

496

Will humans successfully land on Mars within the next 30 years?

Oct 10, 5:04 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

69%chance

412671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

894

Will a country other than the United States land a human on the moon before the end of 2031?

Apr 2, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.56%chance

291086

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2101

1910

Will humans land on Mars and lift off from its surface to an altitude of at least 10 km by 2041?

Aug 7, 5:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.77%chance

11305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204

178

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