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Language Learning Models News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

19.85%chance

796429524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

34977

14290

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.29%chance

216832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3327

301

Before 2026, Will DL systems outperform humans at describing a picture in words to make human mental images match it?

Jun 19, 12:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33%chance

134578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

Will reinforcement learning overtake LMs on math before 2028?

May 29, 11:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

70.34%chance

394177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1632

414

LLMs by EOY 2025: Will Retentive Learning Surpass Transformers? (Subsidised 400 M$)

Sep 15, 7:21 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.97%chance

374074

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2613

736

Will scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?

Feb 27, 11:31 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

15.34%chance

533171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1805

749

Will a lab train a >=1e26 FLOP state space model before the end of 2025?

Dec 11, 1:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.19%chance

332522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1989

688

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

31.23%chance

142358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1627

398

6. An AI system will pass the Turing test for speech.

Dec 27, 8:17 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

70.97%chance

142307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1564

640

Will causality be an important ingredient in major commercial applications of AI by the end of 2025?

Aug 24, 11:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.28%chance

251137

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

811

Will tweaking current Large Language Models (LLMs) lead us to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?

Jan 6, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.53%chance

27998

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

973

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

35.95%chance

13376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

853

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