Language Learning Models News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

858583544

OptionVotes

YES

89425

8110

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

20049319

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

3477

288

Will reinforcement learning overtake LMs on math before 2028?

May 29, 11:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.78%chance

394345

OptionVotes

YES

1390

541

When will LLMs be able to translate the Food Tongue conlang?

Dec 31, 4:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

234041

OptionProbability

2027 or later

2026

2024

2025

Will scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?

Feb 27, 11:31 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

13.07%chance

543421

OptionVotes

YES

2055

707

Does AI help drug discovery?

Oct 14, 1:50 AMJan 2, 2:47 AM

77.52%chance

61565

OptionVotes

YES

4063

2475

Biotech creates a technology rivaling AI

Apr 25, 5:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.86%chance

81027

OptionVotes

YES

1739

575

Will tweaking current Large Language Models (LLMs) lead us to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?

Jan 6, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.76%chance

281001

OptionVotes

YES

1040

976

Will pytorch be most used autodiff framework as of the end of 2026?

Dec 18, 8:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

83.02%chance

7153

OptionVotes

YES

257

109

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

Mar 24, 2:31 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7116

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

Transparency into any useful internal pattern in LLM by EOY 20XY whose semantics was unfamiliar to AI & cog sci in 20NN?

Oct 23, 1:34 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

422

OptionProbability

By 2036... In 2006

By 2030... In 2006

By 2028... in 2008

By 2028... in 2006

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Prediction markets for Language Learning Models

Prediction markets for Language Learning Models

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Will reinforcement learning overtake LMs on math before 2028?

When will LLMs be able to translate the Food Tongue conlang?

Will scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?

Does AI help drug discovery?

Biotech creates a technology rivaling AI

Will tweaking current Large Language Models (LLMs) lead us to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?

Will pytorch be most used autodiff framework as of the end of 2026?

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

Transparency into any useful internal pattern in LLM by EOY 20XY whose semantics was unfamiliar to AI & cog sci in 20NN?

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