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Prediction markets for Language Model

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

57%chance

19201443244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4997

3766

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

19.85%chance

796429524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

34977

14290

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72172465

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced before 2028

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2027

GPT-6

Grok 5

Any Claude 5 model

Gemini 3

DeepSeek-V4

OpenAI o4

Claude 3.5 Opus

Any model announced before 2026

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Any Claude 4 model

grok-4

87

79

74

73

68

67

51

50

34

30

28

17

16

13

12

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25533

3383

Will a GPT-4 level efficient HRM based language model be released before Feb 2026? [Details in description]

Jul 31, 3:58 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

6.84%chance

8319233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2141

836

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.17%chance

7312380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1282

780

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?

Dec 29, 5:17 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

27.41%chance

5311468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16709

5518

Will the first AGI be a large language model?

Apr 18, 4:09 PMFeb 1, 3:59 PM

58.39%chance

605672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1397

397

Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?

Jul 11, 7:39 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

46.38%chance

575644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1437

784

Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?

Oct 27, 3:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.65%chance

625231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3906

1917

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?

Aug 12, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.3%chance

184479

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1503

666

Will a Language Model under 10B parameters play chess at Grandmaster level by 2050?

Jan 8, 8:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

88.05%chance

192329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2605

239

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