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Prediction markets for Language Model Machines

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

46.31%chance

20781816781

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4672

4034

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27819

3071

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

387022

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

2028

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

33

20

13

7

6

5

4

4

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?

Feb 27, 11:31 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

15.34%chance

533171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1805

749

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will tweaking current Large Language Models (LLMs) lead us to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?

Jan 6, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.53%chance

27998

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

973

When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?

Mar 23, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5705

OptionProbability

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032+

2027

2026

2025

28

13

13

13

13

10

7

4

Will pytorch be most used autodiff framework as of the end of 2026?

Dec 18, 8:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

83.02%chance

7153

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

109

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