Language Model Machines News

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

58.15%chance

22502117186

OptionVotes

YES

5119

3680

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.55%chance

8250361

OptionVotes

YES

28550

2982

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

397377

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

3477

288

Will scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?

Feb 27, 11:31 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

13.07%chance

543421

OptionVotes

YES

2055

707

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

YES

1720

680

Does AI help drug discovery?

Oct 14, 1:50 AMJan 2, 2:47 AM

77.52%chance

61565

OptionVotes

YES

4063

2475

When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?

Mar 23, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61105

OptionProbability

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032+

2027

2026

2025

Will tweaking current Large Language Models (LLMs) lead us to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?

Jan 6, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.76%chance

281001

OptionVotes

YES

1040

976

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Aug 1, 4:22 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

67.6%chance

5298

OptionVotes

YES

154

Will pytorch be most used autodiff framework as of the end of 2026?

Dec 18, 8:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

83.02%chance

7153

OptionVotes

YES

257

109

Will Chatgpt-type chatbots become permanent in our lives permanently before 2100?

Sep 15, 1:20 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

137

OptionProbability

No, they will be replaced by a different technology before becoming permanent

Yes, they will become permanent fixtures by 2030

Yes, they will become permanent fixtures between 2031-2050

Yes, they will become permanent fixtures between 2051-2099

No, they will lose popularity and cease to be part of daily life

Language Model Machines News

Prediction markets for Language Model Machines

Prediction markets for Language Model Machines

Prediction markets for Language Model Machines

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Will scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Does AI help drug discovery?

When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?

Will tweaking current Large Language Models (LLMs) lead us to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Will pytorch be most used autodiff framework as of the end of 2026?

Will Chatgpt-type chatbots become permanent in our lives permanently before 2100?

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