Lanterns News

[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Jul 20, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.25%chance

11456464

OptionVotes

YES

9350

3477

Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?

Sep 27, 2:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

21.2%chance

10421308

OptionVotes

YES

2209

1947

Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]

Apr 16, 3:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10514341

OptionProbability

Good on balance, comparable to other beneficial dental treatments

Causes (at least) minor side effects for some people, same scale as Tylenol

Doesn’t work at all and never will

Advance of approximately the same magnitude as fluoride

Causes (at least) medium side effects, same scale as tricyclics

Doesn’t work in its current form, but could easily be modified into something that does

Causes disastrous side effects, same scale as thalidomide

Will Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?

Oct 8, 9:05 AMDec 16, 7:59 AM

7%chance

3411568

OptionVotes

YES

11171

7571

Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2026?

Apr 10, 5:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.64%chance

345750

OptionVotes

YES

4178

694

Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2028?

Apr 14, 8:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.73%chance

303183

OptionVotes

YES

3190

569

Does Lantern Bioworks' product to prevent cavities also eliminate "morning breath"?

Apr 10, 8:58 PMDec 31, 5:01 AM

31.34%chance

382225

OptionVotes

YES

1284

777

Will the scientific consensus in 2030 be that Lantern Bioworks' Lumina Probiotic is effective at reducing cavities?

Apr 10, 2:03 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50.87%chance

331336

OptionVotes

YES

1048

934

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2028?

Apr 10, 6:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.65%chance

231334

OptionVotes

YES

1130

760

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm and found liable for damage caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2029?

Apr 13, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.3%chance

17991

OptionVotes

YES

1207

923

Will Lantern Biotech get sued for over $1M by 2029?

Apr 11, 5:25 PMApr 19, 6:59 AM

35.65%chance

29989

OptionVotes

YES

1027

970

Will Lumina / BCS3-L1 by Lantern Bioworks be available in the EU by 2026?

Dec 8, 6:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

8.66%chance

11349

OptionVotes

YES

1294

940

Lanterns News

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Prediction markets for Lanterns

Prediction markets for Lanterns

[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?

Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]

Will Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?

Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2026?

Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2028?

Does Lantern Bioworks' product to prevent cavities also eliminate "morning breath"?

Will the scientific consensus in 2030 be that Lantern Bioworks' Lumina Probiotic is effective at reducing cavities?

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2028?

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm and found liable for damage caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2029?

Will Lantern Biotech get sued for over $1M by 2029?

Will Lumina / BCS3-L1 by Lantern Bioworks be available in the EU by 2026?

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