Lapse News

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

17074531

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

When will DHS be funded again?

Feb 28, 5:03 AMJun 2, 3:59 AM

147663

OptionProbability

Before April 13

Before March 30

Before March 9

Before March 16

Before March 23

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Jan 2, 12:10 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89%chance

223985

OptionVotes

YES

2060

771

REE export licenses lapse without renewal by Mar 31, 2026?

Sep 15, 3:37 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

15.72%chance

132297

OptionVotes

YES

2319

433

Will Sam Bankman-Fried successfully appeal any of his convictions or sentence?

Nov 4, 10:31 PMMay 30, 6:59 AM

8.79%chance

192155

OptionVotes

YES

1001

389

Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

Feb 4, 5:47 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

50.19%chance

71627

OptionVotes

YES

1073

921

Will 10% of Americans identify as LGBT before the end of 2026, according to Gallup?

Oct 6, 7:32 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

30.77%chance

331509

OptionVotes

YES

1366

778

Will the US government shut down before April 1, 2026?»

Feb 14, 1:03 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

93.22%chance

161484

OptionVotes

YES

371

US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?

Feb 13, 7:20 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

48.11%chance

17694

OptionVotes

YES

1038

963

Are we getting less intelligent? Will our IQ scores get lower from now onwards? Are we headed for idiocracy?

Sep 3, 8:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.22%chance

23500

OptionVotes

YES

1097

893

Will anyone be kicked out of Inkhaven's April cohort?

Mar 25, 3:33 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

46%chance

5205

OptionVotes

YES

1083

923

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

YES

194

119

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What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

When will DHS be funded again?

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

REE export licenses lapse without renewal by Mar 31, 2026?

Will Sam Bankman-Fried successfully appeal any of his convictions or sentence?

Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

Will 10% of Americans identify as LGBT before the end of 2026, according to Gallup?

Will the US government shut down before April 1, 2026?»

US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?

Are we getting less intelligent? Will our IQ scores get lower from now onwards? Are we headed for idiocracy?

Will anyone be kicked out of Inkhaven's April cohort?

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

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