Lapse News

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

17984322

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

Feb 4, 5:47 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

5.02%chance

199687

OptionVotes

YES

8375

385

US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?

Feb 13, 7:20 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

2.78%chance

439454

OptionVotes

YES

5914

169

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Jan 2, 12:10 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

92.62%chance

277815

OptionVotes

YES

2866

691

Will 10% of Americans identify as LGBT before the end of 2026, according to Gallup?

Oct 6, 7:32 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

25.74%chance

341711

OptionVotes

YES

1572

697

Are we getting less intelligent? Will our IQ scores get lower from now onwards? Are we headed for idiocracy?

Sep 3, 8:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.22%chance

23500

OptionVotes

YES

1097

893

Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027?

May 13, 8:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77%chance

11456

OptionVotes

YES

183

Will Corpus Christi "run out of water" by the end of 2030?

Apr 23, 8:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.17%chance

4193

OptionVotes

YES

1147

872

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

YES

194

119

(5X multiplied) Will there be a 48 hour government shutdown before 2027?

Aug 27, 8:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

442

OptionProbability

Shutdown 2

Shutdown 3

Shutdown 4

Shutdown 5

Shutdown 1

TSA abolished by EOY 2030?

Mar 27, 3:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.99%chance

331

OptionVotes

YES

111

Will the US DOE FEOC graphite waiver (IRA $7,500 EV credit) be active on December 31, 2026?

Apr 7, 2:27 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

69.06%chance

115

OptionVotes

YES

115

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What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Will 10% of Americans identify as LGBT before the end of 2026, according to Gallup?

Are we getting less intelligent? Will our IQ scores get lower from now onwards? Are we headed for idiocracy?

Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027?

Will Corpus Christi "run out of water" by the end of 2030?

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

(5X multiplied) Will there be a 48 hour government shutdown before 2027?

TSA abolished by EOY 2030?

Will the US DOE FEOC graphite waiver (IRA $7,500 EV credit) be active on December 31, 2026?

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