Lapse News

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

17074531

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

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152159

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683

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Nov 4, 10:31 PMMay 30, 6:59 AM

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993

479

REE export licenses lapse without renewal by Mar 31, 2026?

Sep 15, 3:37 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

11.87%chance

61870

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YES

2729

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Oct 6, 7:32 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

30.52%chance

321505

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YES

1376

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Another US government shutdown before February 14?

Feb 6, 6:16 AMFeb 15, 4:59 AM

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YES

1278

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Feb 4, 6:18 PMOct 1, 5:16 PM

50.93%chance

7631

OptionVotes

YES

1019

981

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Feb 4, 5:47 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

35.57%chance

3610

OptionVotes

YES

1415

665

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23500

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YES

1097

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Will Congress fund the Department of Homeland Security by February 13?

Feb 4, 2:30 PMFeb 14, 4:59 AM

37.34%chance

5498

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YES

1295

772

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

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48.5%chance

866

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163

135

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What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Will Sam Bankman-Fried successfully appeal any of his convictions or sentence?

REE export licenses lapse without renewal by Mar 31, 2026?

Will 10% of Americans identify as LGBT before the end of 2026, according to Gallup?

Another US government shutdown before February 14?

US government shutdown by October 1st 2026?

Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

Are we getting less intelligent? Will our IQ scores get lower from now onwards? Are we headed for idiocracy?

Will Congress fund the Department of Homeland Security by February 13?

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

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