Lapse News

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

17280548

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

Will Sam Bankman-Fried successfully appeal any of his convictions or sentence?

Nov 4, 10:31 PMSep 1, 6:59 AM

2.4%chance

2613387

OptionVotes

YES

1454

953

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Jan 2, 12:10 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89%chance

234935

OptionVotes

YES

2060

771

Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

Feb 4, 5:47 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

58.12%chance

113096

OptionVotes

YES

2211

1833

Will 10% of Americans identify as LGBT before the end of 2026, according to Gallup?

Oct 6, 7:32 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

25.74%chance

341711

OptionVotes

YES

1572

697

US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?

Feb 13, 7:20 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

44.57%chance

17844

OptionVotes

YES

1115

897

Are we getting less intelligent? Will our IQ scores get lower from now onwards? Are we headed for idiocracy?

Sep 3, 8:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.22%chance

23500

OptionVotes

YES

1097

893

Will Corpus Christi "run out of water" by the end of 2030?

Apr 23, 8:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.08%chance

3172

OptionVotes

YES

1126

888

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

YES

194

119

Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027?

May 13, 8:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48%chance

5100

OptionVotes

YES

104

TSA abolished by EOY 2030?

Mar 27, 3:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.99%chance

331

OptionVotes

YES

111

Will the US DOE FEOC graphite waiver (IRA $7,500 EV credit) be active on December 31, 2026?

Apr 7, 2:27 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

85%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

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What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Will Sam Bankman-Fried successfully appeal any of his convictions or sentence?

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

Will 10% of Americans identify as LGBT before the end of 2026, according to Gallup?

US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?

Are we getting less intelligent? Will our IQ scores get lower from now onwards? Are we headed for idiocracy?

Will Corpus Christi "run out of water" by the end of 2030?

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027?

TSA abolished by EOY 2030?

Will the US DOE FEOC graphite waiver (IRA $7,500 EV credit) be active on December 31, 2026?

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