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Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

51.67%chance

22232043175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4490

4196

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.67%chance

836529327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

69114

9469

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.67%chance

8149972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28379

3002

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.12%chance

8915182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1228

814

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?

Aug 12, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.4%chance

4011196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1471

680

Will the first AGI be a large language model?

Apr 18, 4:09 PMFeb 1, 3:59 PM

63.39%chance

696760

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1483

342

Will humans land on a planet, dwarf planet, or moon large enough to be spheroid in shape OTHER than the Moon or Mars by the end of 2050?

Oct 15, 11:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29%chance

493876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1584

568

Will there be a new large-scale virus that infects more than 100,000,000 unique people before 2030?

Dec 13, 2:51 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.43%chance

292044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

706

Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?

Sep 13, 11:40 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

39.34%chance

361856

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1125

740

Will we discover any large object moving faster than 0.1c (inflation-adjusted) in free space before 2040?

Nov 3, 7:18 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

21.73%chance

61576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1898

527

Will the sanctions on Russia be largely lifted before 2031?

Jun 30, 9:33 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

54.92%chance

16911

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

906

US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026

Jan 16, 8:15 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

49.45%chance

6605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

989

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