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Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

44.04%chance

21101878323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4890

3853

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10.06%chance

826508702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

57414

10596

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8141187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29364

2889

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.54%chance

8514858

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1239

807

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?

Aug 12, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.21%chance

3310730

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1465

683

Will the first AGI be a large language model?

Apr 18, 4:09 PMFeb 1, 3:59 PM

45.4%chance

645999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1203

577

Will humans land on a planet, dwarf planet, or moon large enough to be spheroid in shape OTHER than the Moon or Mars by the end of 2050?

Oct 15, 11:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29%chance

493876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1584

568

Will a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model?

Jan 12, 5:47 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

38.48%chance

373458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1193

845

Will there be a new large-scale virus that infects more than 100,000,000 unique people before 2030?

Dec 13, 2:51 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.43%chance

292044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

706

Will we discover any large object moving faster than 0.1c (inflation-adjusted) in free space before 2040?

Nov 3, 7:18 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

22.65%chance

61526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1848

541

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026

Jan 16, 8:15 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

52.72%chance

6541

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

947

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