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Prediction markets for Large Behavior Models

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33264

2509

Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?

Oct 31, 11:55 AMOct 31, 10:59 PM

19.14%chance

131906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2055

487

Will Elon Musk try to use an AI model to sway people towards a political ideology before 2031?

Jan 13, 12:17 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

35%chance

22424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

80

Major AI companies continue experiencing problems with public due to AI (based on transformer language model) overcome behavior limitations and acts "strange" by the end of 2027

Feb 26, 1:53 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

55.31%chance

5218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

252

179

Will Model Intelligence diverge from consumer market share?

Apr 14, 12:44 AMApr 14, 12:30 AM

665

OptionProbability

Yes

N/A (unclear)

No

60

23

17

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.64%chance

458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

Will Tapio Schneider win the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal by EOY2045?

Apr 18, 7:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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