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Large Concept Models News
Prediction markets for Large Concept Models
Prediction markets for Large Concept Models
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
11.08%
chance
81
38437
Option
Votes
YES
NO
27819
3071
Do LLMs experience qualia?
Jul 20, 1:12 AM
Jan 1, 2:08 AM
40.42%
chance
84
6833
Option
Votes
NO
YES
325
227
Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:05 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
22.01%
chance
17
5392
Option
Votes
YES
NO
9916
2845
2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
Mar 11, 12:08 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
82.06%
chance
37
2697
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1928
630
Is Nick Cammarata right: LLM will be able to mechanistically audit own circuits and explain ghiblification in 2Y?
Mar 28, 6:07 AM
Mar 28, 6:05 AM
23.18%
chance
8
179
Option
Votes
YES
NO
182
55
Will anyone sucessfully redteam creation of smallpox before 2028?
Nov 30, 11:17 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
21.31%
chance
6
115
Option
Votes
YES
NO
192
52
Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?
Nov 11, 11:36 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
56.48%
chance
4
51
Option
Votes
NO
YES
114
88
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