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Large Concept Models News
Prediction markets for Large Concept Models
Prediction markets for Large Concept Models
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
13.02%
chance
75
32370
Option
Votes
YES
NO
25533
3383
Do LLMs experience qualia?
Jul 20, 1:12 AM
Jan 1, 2:08 AM
29.59%
chance
75
5610
Option
Votes
YES
NO
314
279
Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:05 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
22.01%
chance
17
5392
Option
Votes
YES
NO
9916
2845
5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.
Dec 27, 8:16 AM
Jan 3, 10:59 PM
14.93%
chance
28
3177
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2387
419
2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
Mar 11, 12:08 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
82.06%
chance
37
2697
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1928
630
2. Scaling laws will be discovered and exploited in areas beyond text—in particular, in robotics and biology.
Dec 27, 8:12 AM
Jan 3, 10:59 PM
61%
chance
13
1668
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1251
800
Is Nick Cammarata right: LLM will be able to mechanistically audit own circuits and explain ghiblification in 2Y?
Mar 28, 6:07 AM
Mar 28, 6:05 AM
23.18%
chance
8
179
Option
Votes
YES
NO
182
55
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