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Prediction markets for Large Language Model

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

51.1%chance

22222043125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4440

4244

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.67%chance

836529327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

69114

9469

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.67%chance

8149972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28379

3002

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.12%chance

8915182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1228

814

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?

Aug 12, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.4%chance

4011196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1471

680

Will the first AGI be a large language model?

Apr 18, 4:09 PMFeb 1, 3:59 PM

63.39%chance

696760

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1483

342

Will a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model?

Jan 12, 5:47 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

31.35%chance

413836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1410

729

When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess?

Aug 11, 4:42 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

421774

OptionProbability

2030

2028

2029

2027

2026

2024

2025

80

75

72

48

34

0

0

Will tweaking current Large Language Models (LLMs) lead us to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?

Jan 6, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.76%chance

281001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

976

Will a Large Language Model be deployed on a mission to land on a moon or planet by the end of 2030?

Dec 18, 3:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.96%chance

17440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

944

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Aug 1, 4:22 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

52.56%chance

348

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

82

Will "Tracing the Thoughts of a Large Language Model" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 13, 4:36 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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