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Large Language Model News

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

43.41%chance

21791949563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4954

3804

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.66%chance

834517250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

59065

10415

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33264

2509

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

8514881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?

Aug 12, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67%chance

3610912

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1425

702

Will the first AGI be a large language model?

Apr 18, 4:09 PMFeb 1, 3:59 PM

63.18%chance

676570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1479

344

Will a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model?

Jan 12, 5:47 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

31.51%chance

393824

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1404

731

Will tweaking current Large Language Models (LLMs) lead us to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?

Jan 6, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.76%chance

281001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

976

Will a Large Language Model be deployed on a mission to land on a moon or planet by the end of 2030?

Dec 18, 3:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.96%chance

17440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

944

Will Large Language Models be able to match up all queries of my real name matched up with all my online handles by 2026

Mar 11, 1:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.12%chance

320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

91

88

Will "Tracing the Thoughts of a Large Language Model" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 13, 4:36 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will a subcubic matrix multiplication algorithm be used for the primary training workload of a SOTA large-language model

Jan 26, 11:20 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45%chance

111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

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