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Prediction markets for Large Language Model

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

55%chance

18991408561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4798

3922

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

19.85%chance

796429524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

34977

14290

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25533

3383

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.17%chance

7312380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1282

780

Will the first AGI be a large language model?

Apr 18, 4:09 PMFeb 1, 3:59 PM

58.39%chance

605672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1397

397

Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?

Jul 11, 7:39 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

46.38%chance

575644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1437

784

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?

Aug 12, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.68%chance

174008

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1866

536

Will a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model?

Jan 12, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.93%chance

363190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1130

886

Will a Large Language Model be listed as an author on a peer-reviewed paper by the end of 2025?

Dec 18, 4:00 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

33.59%chance

382199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1424

629

Will tweaking current Large Language Models (LLMs) lead us to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?

Jan 6, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.53%chance

27998

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

973

Will a Large Language Model be deployed on a mission to land on a moon or planet by the end of 2030?

Dec 18, 3:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.96%chance

17440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

944

Will "Tracing the Thoughts of a Large Language Model" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 13, 4:36 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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