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Prediction markets for Large Language Model

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

45%chance

20781816341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4797

3929

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.91%chance

811504802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58014

10529

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27819

3071

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

7712738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?

Aug 12, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.27%chance

3010604

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1538

650

Will the first AGI be a large language model?

Apr 18, 4:09 PMFeb 1, 3:59 PM

45.33%chance

645998

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

578

Will a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model?

Jan 12, 5:47 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

38.48%chance

373458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1193

845

When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess?

Aug 11, 4:42 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

321567

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2024

2025

87

84

69

35

15

0

0

Will tweaking current Large Language Models (LLMs) lead us to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?

Jan 6, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.53%chance

27998

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

973

Will a Large Language Model be deployed on a mission to land on a moon or planet by the end of 2030?

Dec 18, 3:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.96%chance

17440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

944

We are going to start running out of data to train large language models in [YEAR]

Oct 14, 3:57 PMFeb 2, 6:29 PM

9336

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2030

2024

2028

2029

2027

2023

26

18

14

13

8

8

7

5

Will "Tracing the Thoughts of a Large Language Model" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 13, 4:36 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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