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Large Language Models News

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

45.63%chance

21942002791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4736

3979

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.7%chance

835518679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58873

10436

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.34%chance

8146108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32243

2599

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59%chance

8615099

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1200

834

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?

Aug 12, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.4%chance

4011196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1471

680

Will the first AGI be a large language model?

Apr 18, 4:09 PMFeb 1, 3:59 PM

63.39%chance

696760

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1483

342

Will a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model?

Jan 12, 5:47 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

31.22%chance

403834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1414

727

Will tweaking current Large Language Models (LLMs) lead us to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?

Jan 6, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.76%chance

281001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

976

Will a Large Language Model be deployed on a mission to land on a moon or planet by the end of 2030?

Dec 18, 3:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.96%chance

17440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

944

Will a large language model (or AI) successfully convince someone to take amphetamine (off-label, not for ADHD) by 2035?

Apr 8, 11:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.75%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

82

Will a subcubic matrix multiplication algorithm be used for the primary training workload of a SOTA large-language model

Jan 26, 11:20 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50%chance

121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will "Tracing the Thoughts of a Large Language Model" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 13, 4:36 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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