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Prediction markets for Large Language Models

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

58.17%chance

22502116926

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5121

3678

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

858583544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

89425

8110

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.55%chance

8250361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28550

2982

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71%chance

9516173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1565

639

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?

Aug 12, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

4112058

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2000

500

Will the first AGI be a large language model?

Apr 18, 4:09 PMFeb 1, 3:59 PM

63.39%chance

696760

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1483

342

Will a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model?

Jan 12, 5:47 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

28.88%chance

423929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

690

When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess?

Aug 11, 4:42 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

441804

OptionProbability

2030

2028

2029

2027

2026

2024

2025

88

86

78

66

34

0

0

Will tweaking current Large Language Models (LLMs) lead us to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?

Jan 6, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.76%chance

281001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

976

Will a Large Language Model be deployed on a mission to land on a moon or planet by the end of 2030?

Dec 18, 3:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.96%chance

17440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

944

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Aug 1, 4:22 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

67.6%chance

5298

OptionVotes

NO

YES

154

58

Will "Tracing the Thoughts of a Large Language Model" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 13, 4:36 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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