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Large Language Models News

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

44.66%chance

20761812654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4830

3901

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.91%chance

811504802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58014

10529

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27819

3071

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

7712738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?

Aug 12, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.27%chance

3010604

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1538

650

Will the first AGI be a large language model?

Apr 18, 4:09 PMFeb 1, 3:59 PM

45.33%chance

645998

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

578

Will a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model?

Jan 12, 5:47 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

38.48%chance

373458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1193

845

Will tweaking current Large Language Models (LLMs) lead us to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?

Jan 6, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.53%chance

27998

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

973

Will a Large Language Model be deployed on a mission to land on a moon or planet by the end of 2030?

Dec 18, 3:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.96%chance

17440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

944

By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]

Sep 20, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

24.54%chance

677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

97

Will "Tracing the Thoughts of a Large Language Model" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 13, 4:36 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will a subcubic matrix multiplication algorithm be used for the primary training workload of a SOTA large-language model

Jan 26, 11:20 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45%chance

111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

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