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Top stories

Deep Silver Reveals Dawn of War IV for 2026 at Gamescom

Deep Silver Reveals Dawn of War IV for 2026 at Gamescom

Authors

11

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Last Stand

Who will be the last Manifold founder left standing?

Nov 25, 6:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

235568

OptionProbability

Stephen

Austin

James

79

10

10

Who will be the last standing SCOTUS justice?

Apr 9, 2:44 PMApr 17, 3:59 AM

242905

OptionProbability

Amy Coney Barrett

Ketanji Brown Jackson

Neil Gorsuch

Brett Kavanaugh

John Roberts

Elena Kagan

Samuel Alito

Sonia Sotomayor

Clarence Thomas

17

17

14

13

9

9

5

5

4

Congressional Survivor: Who will be the final member in Congress?

Mar 14, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

221911

OptionProbability

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, AOC (D: NY-14)

Josh Hawley (R: MO)

Rashida Tlaib (D: MI-12)

Jon Ossoff (D: GA)

Maxwell Frost (D: FL-10)

Cori Bush (D: MO-1)

Matt Gaetz (R: FL-1)

38

26

16

8

8

2

1

Will Tontine ever pay out?

Mar 25, 6:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.65%chance

241735

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

937

Will my friend Doodle get a girlfriend before GTA 6 Drops?

Feb 20, 2:46 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

54.32%chance

51285

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

Of the world's current highest ultra-wealthy, who will be the last standing?

Feb 24, 7:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

131257

OptionProbability

Elon Musk

Jeff Bezos

Bernard Arnault

Larry Ellison

Warren Buffett

29

22

15

10

5

Will the Chiefs ever hold 1st place in the AFC West in the 2025 NFL Season?

Sep 16, 12:40 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

10.01%chance

9972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

IRAdvocates v. Apple resolved by EOY 2028?

Nov 29, 12:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.96%chance

7392

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1392

718

Will the Northeast Face of Mashenbrum be climed by end of 2032?

Sep 10, 4:48 AMSep 17, 6:59 AM

46.7%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

936

Will "' petertodd'’s last stand: The final days of ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

May 13, 9:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.34%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

99

Will Dave Gahan be the last standing member of Depeche Mode?

Nov 24, 9:56 AMDec 1, 12:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

Fiction with last stands, hill-dying, etc

Sep 18, 7:27 AM

00

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