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Prediction markets for Latent AI
Prediction markets for Latent AI
Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?
Dec 14, 1:06 AM
Jan 2, 1:00 AM
15.31%
chance
26
29485
Option
Votes
YES
NO
23517
4252
Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?
Oct 20, 7:33 PM
Oct 21, 3:59 AM
31.23%
chance
14
2358
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1627
398
Will top open-weight LLMs in 2025 reason opaquely?
Dec 11, 6:09 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
24.16%
chance
27
1808
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1772
564
Will ARC's Heuristic Arguments research substantially advance AI alignment before 2027?
Sep 15, 1:31 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
25.79%
chance
5
51
Option
Votes
YES
NO
181
103
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