OptionProbability
Jan 1, 2029
Jan 1, 2028
Jan 1, 2027
65
54
19
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1627
398
8) At least one paper from the agenda gets published at a top conference or has a companion LessWrong post with >100 upvotes within 1 year
2) I reflectively endorse focussing on it 1 year later
7) At least one paper from the agenda gets published at a top conference or has a companion LessWrong post with >100 upvotes within 6 months
1) I reflectively endorse focussing on it 6 months later
3) I consider the work produced useful 6 months later
6) A prominent figure in AI safety publicly endorses the agenda or some research produced by it within 1 year
9) At least three papers from the agenda get published at top conferences or have companion LessWrong posts with >100 upvotes within 2 years
4) I consider the work produced useful 1 year later
5) A prominent figure in AI safety publicly endorses the agenda or some research produced by it within 6 months
79
63
61
56
55
50
44
42
37
1221
822
1313
762
181
103
