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Prediction markets for Launch Edition

By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship?

Jan 3, 10:53 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM

3513386

OptionProbability

2030/01/01

2029/01/01

2028/01/01

2027/10/01

2027/07/01

2027/04/01

2027/01/01

2026/10/01

2026/07/01

2025/01/01

2025/04/01

2025/07/01

2025/10/01

2026/01/01

2026/04/01

89

75

56

45

30

17

8

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will Starship reach orbit?

Apr 2, 6:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

157263

OptionProbability

Jul-Dec 2026

2027

2028

Apr-Jun 2026

2029

2030

2031

2032+ or never

60

31

4

1

1

1

1

1

Will there be a nuclear strike on a civilian or military target by 2030?

Nov 20, 1:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.01%chance

322810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1564

639

Will Robinhood still be offering prediction markets in 2027

Jun 13, 1:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.44%chance

52091

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3075

325

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Aug 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.79%chance

121971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1451

689

Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?

Feb 11, 3:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42%chance

201754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

851

New gemini version out in june

Jun 8, 10:37 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

37.19%chance

21439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

When will Qwen-Image-2.0 weights become publicly available?

Feb 11, 5:07 AMJul 1, 4:06 AM

4342

OptionProbability

July 1, 2026 – Dec 31, 2027

Before July 1, 2026

Jan 1, 2027 – June 30, 2027

July 1, 2027 or later

37

21

21

21

The US becomes much more like Shadowrun by the end of 2029

Jan 1, 3:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.12%chance

2274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

802

Will Cursor report 10M monthly active users before Jan 1, 2027?

May 18, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.96%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

988

when will Elomusk finish his last project in this year 2026

Jun 25, 10:42 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

320

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before Oct 2026

Before Dec 2026

Before Aug 2026

59

50

50

38

Will Griffin-1 succeed its Moon landing?

Jun 16, 2:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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