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Prediction markets for Launch Edition

By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship?

Jan 3, 10:53 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM

248934

OptionProbability

2030/01/01

2029/01/01

2028/01/01

2027/10/01

2027/07/01

2027/04/01

2027/01/01

2026/10/01

2026/07/01

2026/04/01

2025/01/01

2025/04/01

2025/07/01

2025/10/01

2026/01/01

89

87

84

78

61

52

42

32

13

1

0

0

0

0

0

When will the first 1000+ drone/missile strike hit Ukraine?

Jul 1, 10:07 AMAug 1, 10:01 AM

34659

OptionProbability

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

January 2026

August 2025

September 2025

October 2025

November 2025

December 2025

13

13

13

13

13

13

11

2

2

2

2

2

Will Artemis II fly before Starship Flight 12?

Jan 9, 5:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.97%chance

193566

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1603

624

Will there be a nuclear strike on a civilian or military target by 2030?

Nov 20, 1:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.01%chance

312800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1564

639

How many rocket launches will be needed for the Artemis III human moon-landing mission?

Nov 27, 11:19 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

282345

OptionProbability

10–14

15–19

20–24

25–29

5–9

30–∞

1–4

32

32

22

6

4

4

0

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Aug 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.98%chance

91530

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

961

What will GTA VI cost?

May 19, 7:44 PMJan 1, 8:41 PM

141168

OptionProbability

$70 - $79.99

$80 - $89.99

$90 - $99.99

$100 - $149.99

$0 - $69.99

$150 - $199.99

$200+

56

26

7

6

3

1

1

New version of grokipedia before?

Jan 31, 11:53 PMDec 30, 11:50 PM

1804

OptionProbability

2026

April

March

February

73

15

11

1

The US becomes much more like Shadowrun by the end of 2029

Jan 1, 3:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.12%chance

2274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

802

100 monthly users on my 'achievements' journaling app?

May 2, 12:26 AMJul 1, 11:52 PM

51.19%chance

3241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

976

GTA VI costs over $100 at launch?

Nov 14, 9:23 PMDec 31, 9:11 PM

26.23%chance

10198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

168

60

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

Feb 16, 11:53 PM

270

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