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Prediction markets for Launch Edition

When will the first 1000+ drone/missile strike hit Ukraine?

Jul 1, 10:07 AMAug 1, 10:01 AM

34825

OptionProbability

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

January 2026

August 2025

September 2025

October 2025

November 2025

December 2025

13

13

13

13

13

13

11

2

2

2

2

2

Will there be a nuclear strike on a civilian or military target by 2030?

Nov 20, 1:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.01%chance

322810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1564

639

When will Starship reach orbit?

Apr 2, 6:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

91701

OptionProbability

Jul-Dec 2026

2027

Apr-Jun 2026

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032+ or never

68

12

9

3

3

3

2

2

Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?

Feb 11, 3:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.65%chance

191696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1136

880

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Aug 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.98%chance

91530

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

961

will gta 6 come out before the end of 2026

Apr 18, 9:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70%chance

181137

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

Will a Waymo self-driving car be involved in a fatal accident before July 1, 2026?

Apr 27, 9:11 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

12.59%chance

16452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

38

The US becomes much more like Shadowrun by the end of 2029

Jan 1, 3:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.12%chance

2274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

802

100 monthly users on my 'achievements' journaling app?

May 2, 12:26 AMJul 1, 11:52 PM

51.19%chance

3241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

976

Will ManiFold Hire a GTM manager until 30 May 2026

Apr 29, 2:05 PMMay 29, 11:59 PM

26.21%chance

4131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

168

60

Will anyone between Dream or Drdonut step down as co-owner of MCPVP.com before August?

May 5, 4:42 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

54.3%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

Will the Kernel Flow 2 be used for a neuroimaging study of sex on psychedelics by EOY2027?

Apr 10, 9:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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