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Prediction markets for Launch Edition

By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship?

Jan 3, 10:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3615170

OptionProbability

2030/01/01

2029/01/01

2028/01/01

2027/10/01

2027/07/01

2027/04/01

2026/10/01

2027/01/01

2025/01/01

2025/04/01

2025/07/01

2025/10/01

2026/01/01

2026/04/01

2026/07/01

89

74

53

45

27

15

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Kimi K4 released in 2026?

Jul 25, 12:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.6%chance

134235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

525

Will Robinhood still be offering prediction markets in 2027

Jun 13, 1:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.73%chance

93483

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4241

236

Will there be a nuclear strike on a civilian or military target by 2030?

Nov 20, 1:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.01%chance

322810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1564

639

Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?

Feb 11, 3:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.63%chance

322634

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1413

708

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Aug 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.42%chance

132372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1852

540

Will Fable remain at the top of the coding ranking?

Jun 30, 9:15 AMDec 31, 10:05 AM

18.95%chance

132346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2068

484

Will Temu go out of business in the EU before 2028?

Jul 5, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.5%chance

131943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1319

758

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

Feb 6, 11:09 PMFeb 6, 10:38 PM

101408

OptionProbability

5.4

5.5

5.6

6

6.5

7

5.7

5.8

5.9

100

100

100

100

46

45

3

3

2

Will Substack implement an automatic AI-generated-content filter by EoY 2026?

Aug 2, 9:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.07%chance

81347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1562

640

The US becomes much more like Shadowrun by the end of 2029

Jan 1, 3:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.12%chance

2274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

802

Will Cursor report 10M monthly active users before Jan 1, 2027?

May 18, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.96%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

988

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