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Prediction markets for Launch Engineer

Which months of 2026 will there be a Starship–Superheavy launch?

Sep 24, 3:04 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

51230534

OptionProbability

May

July

September

November

December

October

January

February

March

April

June

August

100

100

77

57

48

38

0

0

0

0

0

0

How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?

Aug 2, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66156453

OptionProbability

3 or more

4 or more

5 or more

6 or more

7 or more

10 or more

15 or more

20 or more

99

92

38

7

2

2

2

0

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

325852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

735

Will Starship reach Earth orbit before the Blue Origin Lunar Lander?

Mar 1, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.92%chance

295766

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3621

276

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2030?

Nov 3, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

24.13%chance

325445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1773

564

Will a top brand smartphone feature an aqueous battery before 2028?

Sep 5, 4:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.12%chance

62703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3363

297

By when will New Glenn first launch with 9 engines?

Nov 20, 7:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

112648

OptionProbability

2028 Q4

2028 Q3

2028 Q2

2028 Q1

2027 Q4

2027 Q3

2027 Q2

2027 Q1

65

50

31

25

16

10

5

2

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Aug 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.42%chance

132372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1852

540

Amazon lets me rent a server located in earth orbit by mid 2029

May 12, 7:03 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.95%chance

351230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1793

847

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

Will the new Jaguar car marketing campaign increase sales?

Nov 20, 8:31 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

45.21%chance

5319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

908

Will another accidental liftoff occur before 2035?

Mar 30, 5:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.55%chance

5172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

861

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