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Prediction markets for Launch Engineer

How many Starship launches will occur in 2025?

Mar 6, 11:24 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

81128254

OptionProbability

1 or more

3 or more

5 or more

6 or more

7 or more

8 or more

10 or more

15 or more

20 or more

24 or more

100

100

96

52

13

6

4

1

0

0

Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?

Mar 24, 7:01 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

65%chance

6412011

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

880

How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?

Aug 2, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58242

OptionProbability

5 or more

7 or more

10 or more

15 or more

20 or more

86

69

51

24

17

Will a Starship upper stage with Raptor 2 engines ever be caught successfully?

Jun 3, 8:30 PMJun 1, 8:19 PM

9.27%chance

125018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3129

320

Will a top brand smartphone feature an aqueous battery before 2028?

Sep 5, 4:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.87%chance

52203

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2863

349

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Aug 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.39%chance

91330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1190

840

Amazon lets me rent a server located in earth orbit by mid 2029

May 12, 7:03 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.95%chance

351230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1793

847

Will the new Jaguar car marketing campaign increase sales?

Nov 20, 8:31 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

45.21%chance

5319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

908

Apple launches a search engine before the end of 2025.

Dec 17, 1:18 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.23%chance

8295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

358

28

100 monthly users on my 'achievements' journaling app?

May 2, 12:26 AMJul 1, 11:52 PM

51.19%chance

3241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

976

Will another accidental liftoff occur before 2035?

Mar 30, 5:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.18%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

872

Will CALT's Long March 10 rocket launch before 2030?

Sep 16, 7:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

80%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

42

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