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Prediction markets for Launch Engineer

Which months of 2026 will there be a Starship–Superheavy launch?

Sep 24, 3:04 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

40178745

OptionProbability

May

August

September

December

November

October

July

June

January

February

March

April

100

51

51

49

48

47

23

1

0

0

0

0

How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?

Aug 2, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4871148

OptionProbability

4 or more

5 or more

6 or more

7 or more

10 or more

15 or more

20 or more

53

19

13

8

4

2

1

Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?

Mar 24, 7:01 AMJan 7, 12:59 PM

80.27%chance

7322223

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1510

816

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2030?

Nov 3, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

23.8%chance

325440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1789

559

Will Starship reach Earth orbit before the Blue Origin Lunar Lander?

Mar 1, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.03%chance

274239

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2849

351

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.89%chance

253805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1088

922

Will Stoke Space fly to space before 2027?

Dec 16, 6:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.55%chance

152695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2098

478

By when will New Glenn first launch with 9 engines?

Nov 20, 7:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

112648

OptionProbability

2028 Q4

2028 Q3

2028 Q2

2028 Q1

2027 Q4

2027 Q3

2027 Q2

2027 Q1

65

50

31

25

16

10

5

2

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Aug 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.79%chance

121971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1451

689

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Will the new Jaguar car marketing campaign increase sales?

Nov 20, 8:31 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

45.21%chance

5319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

908

Will another accidental liftoff occur before 2035?

Mar 30, 5:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.55%chance

5172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

861

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