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Prediction markets for Launch Engineer

Which months of 2026 will there be a Starship–Superheavy launch?

Sep 24, 3:04 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19121946

OptionProbability

December

November

October

April

September

August

July

June

May

March

January

February

62

59

57

54

54

53

52

50

47

39

1

1

Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?

Mar 24, 7:01 AMJan 7, 12:59 PM

77.94%chance

7220926

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1370

853

How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?

Aug 2, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2119815

OptionProbability

5 or more

7 or more

10 or more

15 or more

20 or more

81

63

28

14

6

Will humans return to the Moon in 2026?

Dec 30, 2:30 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

93.47%chance

6813784

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3785

265

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.44%chance

213540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

971

Will Stoke Space fly to space by 2027?

Dec 16, 6:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.45%chance

111879

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1294

775

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2030?

Nov 3, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.39%chance

211728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1550

645

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Aug 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.98%chance

91530

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

961

By when will New Glenn first launch with 9 engines?

Nov 20, 7:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51350

OptionProbability

2028 Q4

2028 Q3

2028 Q2

2028 Q1

2027 Q4

2027 Q3

2027 Q2

2027 Q1

70

64

54

43

33

22

11

6

Will the new Jaguar car marketing campaign increase sales?

Nov 20, 8:31 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

45.21%chance

5319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

908

100 monthly users on my 'achievements' journaling app?

May 2, 12:26 AMJul 1, 11:52 PM

51.19%chance

3241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

976

Will another accidental liftoff occur before 2035?

Mar 30, 5:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.18%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

872

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