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Prediction markets for Launch Engineer

Which months of 2026 will there be a Starship–Superheavy launch?

Sep 24, 3:04 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29140519

OptionProbability

April

December

November

October

June

August

September

July

May

January

February

March

76

58

57

56

55

55

55

54

49

0

0

0

How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?

Aug 2, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2523779

OptionProbability

5 or more

7 or more

10 or more

15 or more

20 or more

80

39

24

13

5

Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?

Mar 24, 7:01 AMJan 7, 12:59 PM

76.83%chance

7322059

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1312

870

Will humans return to the Moon in 2026?

Dec 30, 2:30 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

87.96%chance

7819682

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2704

370

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.58%chance

233790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

935

Will Stoke Space fly to space before 2027?

Dec 16, 6:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.98%chance

121950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

734

By when will New Glenn first launch with 9 engines?

Nov 20, 7:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71680

OptionProbability

2028 Q4

2028 Q1

2028 Q2

2028 Q3

2027 Q4

2027 Q3

2027 Q2

2027 Q1

37

36

36

36

30

22

11

6

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Aug 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.98%chance

91530

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

961

Will Starship reach Earth orbit before the Blue Origin Lunar Lander?

Mar 1, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75%chance

10970

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1732

577

Will the new Jaguar car marketing campaign increase sales?

Nov 20, 8:31 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

45.21%chance

5319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

908

100 monthly users on my 'achievements' journaling app?

May 2, 12:26 AMJul 1, 11:52 PM

51.19%chance

3241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

976

Will another accidental liftoff occur before 2035?

Mar 30, 5:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.18%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

872

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