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Prediction markets for Launch Live

When will Starship reach orbit?

Apr 2, 6:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1814535

OptionProbability

Jul-Dec 2026

2027

Apr-Jun 2026

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032+ or never

98

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Polymarket launch its official token in 2026?

May 13, 3:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.61%chance

4011304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13991

2467

Which new words will Anthropic use to name Claude models? (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus, Fable, Mythos, ...)

Jun 14, 2:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

395669

OptionProbability

Claude Saga

Claude Epic

Claude … the name of a real (animal species, or settlement, or geological feature)

Claude … Quest, or Goliath

Claude Ballad

Claude Odyssey

Canon

Claude Parable

Claude Anthology

Claude Novel

Claude Legend

Claude Chronicle

Claude Requiem

Claude Allegory

Shannon

Claude Lore

Claude Tale

Claude Myth

19

17

16

16

16

15

14

13

13

12

11

11

11

10

7

4

3

2

Will Balaji's Network School announce a shutdown or relocation away from Malaysia before the end of 2028?

Jul 16, 8:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.1%chance

44220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4962

202

Will SpaceX execute a ship catch attempt during Starship flight 14 ?

Jul 28, 12:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

131079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba in 2026

Jan 13, 3:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.02%chance

131010

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

904

Will the "Wada Hoppah" Charles River ferry launch in 2026?

Jul 7, 3:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.53%chance

3767

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1757

569

Will Tesla's Cybercab be carrying public riders in at least 3 US metro areas by December 31, 2026?

Aug 25, 1:47 AMJan 12, 11:59 PM

96.03%chance

14678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

292

4

During Starship Test Flight 14, how many Booster's Raptor 3 engines will cut off before MECO ?

Aug 5, 12:19 AMAug 5, 3:59 AM

12456

OptionProbability

0

1 - 5

31 - 33

26 - 30

6 - 10

11 - 15

16 - 20

21 - 25

41

25

15

9

4

2

2

2

Will Justin Sun launch a Jing Tian-related token by the end of September 30, 2026?

Aug 28, 12:51 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

50%chance

119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

How the living conditions in the venezuela be in the future?

Jan 16, 8:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

315

OptionProbability

Better future

Worse future

Same Future

38

35

27

When will my app WalkYourTime reach the first 100 downloads?

Apr 7, 9:41 AMFeb 1, 9:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

Jan-Apr 2028

May-Aug 2028

Sep-Dec 2028

Jan-Apr 2029

May-Aug 2029

Sep-Dec 2029

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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