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Prediction markets for Launch Live

By which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit?

Mar 22, 5:57 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

5832344

OptionProbability

15

14

13

12

4 (all flight #s are on or before)

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

79

68

26

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will SpaceX land a human on the Moon before they land a human on Mars?

May 6, 3:39 PMJun 10, 3:29 PM

89%chance

5229094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

981

468

When will Starship fly in space with a human on board?

Mar 30, 2:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

285565

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

83

56

41

1

0

0

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Mar 12, 3:08 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

111094

OptionProbability

Unyielding Islamic Regime

Deal with minimal concessions

Balkanization/long civil war

Deal with major concessions

Military coup (Artesh)

Popular takeover

Venezuela-style puppet state

Voluntary transition of power

38

28

11

8

7

5

2

2

Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba in 2026

Jan 13, 3:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.54%chance

12600

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

965

Will Winnie the Pooh try to conquer Taiwan?

Mar 27, 2:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.51%chance

13288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

73

How the living conditions in the venezuela be in the future?

Jan 16, 8:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

315

OptionProbability

Better future

Worse future

Same Future

38

35

27

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