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Top stories

Tom Artiom Alexandrovich, Israeli Cybersecurity Chief, Flees US After Arrest for Child Sex Crime; Released on $10,000 Bail by US Attorney Sigal Chattah

Tom Artiom Alexandrovich, Israeli Cybersecurity Chief, Flees US After Arrest for Child Sex Crime; Released on $10,000 Bail by US Attorney Sigal Chattah

Authors

37

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Law of Return

Will a Ukrainian citizen be deported from the EU for the purpose of forcing them into military conscription?

Apr 27, 10:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26%chance

381527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

480

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

11920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

961

When will Trump abolish U.S. expat taxes on overseas income?

Mar 8, 7:05 AMJan 31, 3:59 PM

9816

OptionProbability

Other

2027

2028

2026

2024

2025

50

13

13

11

6

6

Will Bangladesh turn into an Islamic Republic by 2030?

Dec 16, 10:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.59%chance

7343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

73

Will Denmark implement a wealth tax by end of 2027?

Mar 18, 10:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.18%chance

5328

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1328

753

Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030?

Mar 4, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

10291

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will More Than 1 Million Jews Immigrate to Israel in the years 2024-2027?

Nov 23, 10:01 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

10.68%chance

10221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

351

98

Will Facebook users with de-personalized ads have better consumer outcomes?

Feb 24, 8:07 PMMar 4, 7:59 AM

45.93%chance

5175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

92

Will the US issue emergency extensions to Visas of Taiwanese citizens who are in the US at any time through 2028

Sep 25, 9:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.23%chance

5132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

94

Will there be a military draft in the United States during Trump's second term, authorized by Congress?

Mar 13, 11:09 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

7.24%chance

4111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

688

Is a Forced Reset Trigger (FRT) a machine gun?

Dec 21, 4:36 AMJan 2, 4:30 AM

40.25%chance

446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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