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Prediction markets for Lead with Love

Where will my single hot friend find her man?

Nov 9, 7:10 PMDec 31, 6:43 PM

14574

OptionProbability

Other

At an EA (Effective Altruism) conference

LessWrong (LW) Meetup

Bay Area Taco Tuesday

Manifold Markets Manifest

Secular Solstice

66

7

7

7

7

6

Charli XCX scores a billboard #1 single in 2026?

Nov 3, 11:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34%chance

9332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

159

When will Joe Root Retire?

Jan 5, 10:04 PMJan 6, 1:59 PM

4319

OptionProbability

End of 2027 Ashes

End of India’s Tour in 2029

2029/2030 Ashes

Other

End 2025-26 Ashes

45

33

14

5

3

Levina's Coefficient (PERMANENT)

Apr 20, 5:56 AMNov 20, 10:59 PM

51.34%chance

8248

OptionProbability

NO

YES

352

347

Will the following people convert to Christianity before 2030? [Add Answers]

Apr 1, 12:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5238

OptionProbability

Joe Rogan

Elon Musk

Alex O'Conner

Sam Harris

Sam Altman

45

29

20

14

11

[Metaculus] Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?

Nov 9, 12:17 AMJan 2, 8:00 AM

26.19%chance

463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

56

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.64%chance

458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

Will we get a PGS score of micronanoplastic toxicity (or resistance) by EOY2028?

Oct 16, 2:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Tapio Schneider win the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal by EOY2045?

Apr 18, 7:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Jose Luis Ricon become an AOE2 hero unit by EOY2055?

Dec 9, 9:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20

Is Stephen Casper funny?

Apr 10, 9:46 PM

10

Help my startup stay alive! (please)

Jan 11, 8:16 PM

00

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