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Prediction markets for Lead with Love

Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of August 31?

Jun 30, 1:32 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

6.12%chance

306077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3918

255

Where will my single hot friend find her man?

Nov 9, 7:10 PMDec 31, 6:43 PM

14574

OptionProbability

Other

At an EA (Effective Altruism) conference

LessWrong (LW) Meetup

Bay Area Taco Tuesday

Manifold Markets Manifest

Secular Solstice

66

7

7

7

7

6

Charli XCX scores a billboard #1 single in 2026?

Nov 3, 11:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28%chance

11457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

303

140

When will Joe Root Retire?

Jan 5, 10:04 PMJan 6, 1:59 PM

4319

OptionProbability

End of 2027 Ashes

End of India’s Tour in 2029

2029/2030 Ashes

Other

End 2025-26 Ashes

45

33

14

5

3

Will the following people convert to Christianity before 2030? [Add Answers]

Apr 1, 12:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8275

OptionProbability

Joe Rogan

Elon Musk

Alex O'Conner

Sam Harris

Sam Altman

45

29

28

14

11

Levina's Coefficient (PERMANENT)

Apr 20, 5:56 AMNov 20, 10:59 PM

51.34%chance

8248

OptionProbability

NO

YES

352

347

[Metaculus] Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?

Nov 9, 12:17 AMJan 2, 8:00 AM

26.19%chance

463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

56

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.64%chance

458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

Will we find Yuan Shao's remains/grave by EOY2055?

May 19, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.27%chance

327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

79

Will we get a PGS score of micronanoplastic toxicity (or resistance) by EOY2028?

Oct 16, 2:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will GTA6 have a free weekend/"free for limited time" right before (within 1.5 months b4) the 2028 presidential election

Jun 26, 7:02 PMNov 7, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will Tapio Schneider win the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal by EOY2045?

Apr 18, 7:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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