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Wallen Extends Billboard Lead as ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Breaks U.K. Streaming Record

1 year ago

If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?

Jul 3, 1:56 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

2364892

OptionProbability

None— vacant thoughout end of term in Jan 20 2029

Other

Matt Giacona

Trump not elected President

Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

0.74%chance

9431429

OptionVotes

YES

11612

Will chuck Schumer lead the senate democrats after 2026 elections?

Mar 19, 3:32 AMJan 3, 12:00 PM

87%chance

2920952

OptionVotes

YES

2548

465

Will any US Senate candidate lead the polling average by 5% or more and lose?

Oct 8, 8:15 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

99%chance

2216262

OptionVotes

YES

7391

The Lead Attorney Stock (Permanent)

Nov 16, 5:15 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

7915237

OptionProbability

YES

1536

1450

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Nov 18, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.78%chance

10812066

OptionVotes

YES

3025

1894

Will an LLM Agent discover a single significant contribution (+100 elo gain ) over the leading chess engine before 2028?

Nov 4, 5:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.64%chance

98202

OptionVotes

YES

17028

5873

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.07%chance

347402

OptionVotes

YES

1458

688

Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?

Feb 22, 12:32 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

67.89%chance

676430

OptionVotes

YES

1451

640

Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2040?

Oct 7, 9:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

242152

OptionVotes

YES

999

983

Bitcoin in USD on random day in 2026, resolves to first 2 leading digits as PROB

Jan 23, 11:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.38%chance

121270

OptionVotes

YES

1365

807

IF Andy Burnham leads Labour into the next General Election, will Labour win?

May 18, 5:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7403

OptionProbability

Labour LOSES next General Election (led by Andy Burnham, using FPTP)

Labour WINS next General Election (led by Andy Burnham, under FPTP)

Andy Burnham does not lead Labour into the next General Election

Labour loses next General Election (led by Andy Burnham, but NOT using FPTP)

Labour wins next General Election (led by Andy Burnham, but NOT using FPTP)

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If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?

Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?

Will chuck Schumer lead the senate democrats after 2026 elections?

Will any US Senate candidate lead the polling average by 5% or more and lose?

The Lead Attorney Stock (Permanent)

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Will an LLM Agent discover a single significant contribution (+100 elo gain ) over the leading chess engine before 2028?

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?

Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2040?

Bitcoin in USD on random day in 2026, resolves to first 2 leading digits as PROB

IF Andy Burnham leads Labour into the next General Election, will Labour win?

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