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Top stories

Japan Leading Index Drops to 105.6, Pointing to Softer Growth Ahead

Authors

4

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Leading Index

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5168430

OptionProbability

170-175

175-180

165-170

180-185

≥185

<155

155-160

160-165

64

14

13

4

2

1

1

1

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3134079

OptionProbability

40-50%

30-40%

50-60%

20-30%

60-70%

10-20%

70-80%

≥80%

<10%

26

24

18

12

6

4

4

3

2

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

Aug 30, 6:29 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

86.31%chance

193431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2511

398

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

Aug 30, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.01%chance

172834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

942

USA(J)MO cutoffs are biased?

Feb 28, 3:14 AMJan 1, 3:01 AM

73.4%chance

201949

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

60

Which company's model will be #1 on Artificial Analysis at the end of September 2026

Aug 26, 4:48 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

171681

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google

Meta

xAI (e.g., Grok)

Moonshot

Z.ai

DeepSeek

Other

89

7

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

Will AI technology lead to higher or lower US inflation rates by end of June 2027

Feb 9, 5:31 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

6680

OptionProbability

Moderately higher inflation (2.1%-3.0%)

Significantly higher inflation (>3.0%)

Minimal impact on inflation (2% or no mention of AI in Fed comms)

Significantly lower inflation (<1.5%)

Moderately lower inflation (1.5%-1.9%)

45

22

16

9

9

Will the stock market crash if the Republicans win the midterms?

May 8, 3:47 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

13%chance

9380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

39

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in November?

May 16, 6:06 AMNov 3, 3:25 AM

2353

OptionProbability

No change

Increase

Decrease

80

16

4

Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?

Jul 6, 6:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

Will fibromyalgia be shown to reflect one main condition rather than many?

Jan 20, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.78%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

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