LEAP News

By 2050, will humans pump significant quantities of ocean water towards the poles to reduce leap seconds?

Mar 24, 5:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.67%chance

433889

OptionVotes

YES

2845

900

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

52.77%chance

541909

OptionVotes

YES

1141

1067

Will there be a negative leap second by end of 2035?

Jan 10, 5:54 PMJan 1, 10:00 AM

23.86%chance

151806

OptionVotes

YES

1809

526

What civil time system will be used on Mars?

Jan 10, 1:11 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

261497

OptionProbability

A day will be 24 hours, 39 minutes and 35.244 SI seconds long

A day will be 24h×60m×60s using a "mars second" equal to 1.0275 SI seconds.

Other

A day will be 24h×60m×60s where a "second" is a unit of angle rather than time, equal to 1/86400 of a revolution w.r.t the sun (i.e. the equivalent of Earth's UT1, this is called "Coordinated Mars Time")

A day will be 24h×60m×60s using SI seconds (and will drift with respect to mean solar time by ~40 minutes a day)

Time of day will be an incrementing number of SI seconds from 0 to 88775.244 (possibly rounded to an integer, with leap-seconds every 4 days or whatever, or no leap seconds and allowing it to drift)

Will there be a Chiefs/49ers Super Bowl in the next leap year?

Mar 1, 5:46 PMFeb 21, 4:59 AM

3.94%chance

5571

OptionVotes

YES

729

Conditional on another positive leap second by end of 2035, will it cause any bugs on Manifold?

Jan 10, 6:18 PMJan 3, 10:00 AM

21.05%chance

11351

OptionVotes

YES

1238

915

The year of Celine Dion's death will be:

Sep 23, 10:15 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8247

OptionProbability

A composite number

Divisible by 2

A leap year

Divisible by 3

A prime number

Divisible by 5

Will there be another positive leap second by end of 2035?

Jan 10, 5:53 PMJan 1, 10:00 AM

54.21%chance

8158

OptionVotes

YES

208

126

Will leap seconds still exist on 31 December 2050?

Dec 4, 10:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

695

OptionProbability

Yes

No, civil time based on atomic time (e.g. TAI) and fully decoupled from Earth rotation

No, replaced with leap minutes

No, civil time based on Earth rotation (e.g. UT1) and fully decoupled from atomic time

Something else

No, replaced with leap hours

Will 4000 be a leap year?

Dec 4, 9:54 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

33.69%chance

369

OptionVotes

YES

107

What will be true of the next sentence spoken on the moon?

Mar 28, 7:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

340

OptionProbability

It will be spoken in English

It will be spoken by an America

It will be spoken before 2030

It will make reference to “One small step for man, one giant leap for mankind”

Will the "Lover's Leap" in Backgammon be proved optimal by 2040?

Dec 28, 12:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.78%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

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By 2050, will humans pump significant quantities of ocean water towards the poles to reduce leap seconds?

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Will there be a negative leap second by end of 2035?

What civil time system will be used on Mars?

Will there be a Chiefs/49ers Super Bowl in the next leap year?

Conditional on another positive leap second by end of 2035, will it cause any bugs on Manifold?

The year of Celine Dion's death will be:

Will there be another positive leap second by end of 2035?

Will leap seconds still exist on 31 December 2050?

Will 4000 be a leap year?

What will be true of the next sentence spoken on the moon?

Will the "Lover's Leap" in Backgammon be proved optimal by 2040?

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