LEAP News
Prediction markets for LEAP
OptionProbability
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100
82
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80
77
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68
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47
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35
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34
31
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28
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25
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25
25
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24
22
22
15
10
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
By 2050, will humans pump significant quantities of ocean water towards the poles to reduce leap seconds?
Mar 24, 5:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
1.75%chance
443891
OptionVotes
2730
902
Will there be a negative leap second by end of 2035?
Jan 10, 5:54 PMJan 1, 10:00 AM
23.15%chance
161872
OptionVotes
1878
526
OptionProbability
39
21
13
11
5
3
3
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
20
16
13
11
8
8
6
5
5
5
4
Will there be a Chiefs/49ers Super Bowl in the next leap year?
Mar 1, 5:46 PMFeb 21, 4:59 AM
3.94%chance
5571
OptionVotes
729
91
Conditional on another positive leap second by end of 2035, will it cause any bugs on Manifold?
Jan 10, 6:18 PMJan 3, 10:00 AM
21.05%chance
11351
OptionVotes
1238
915
OptionProbability
29
26
14
14
11
6
Will there be another positive leap second by end of 2035?
Jan 10, 5:53 PMJan 1, 10:00 AM
54.21%chance
8158
OptionVotes
208
126
OptionVotes
107
77
Will the "Lover's Leap" in Backgammon be proved optimal by 2040?
Dec 28, 12:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.27%chance
351
OptionVotes
89
56
OptionProbability
58
50
50
34