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Learn Prompting News
Prediction markets for Learn Prompting
Prediction markets for Learn Prompting
Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently
Apr 5, 2:04 PM
Jan 1, 9:59 PM
14.4%
chance
58
11987
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2262
219
Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?
Dec 1, 3:21 AM
Mar 1, 11:59 PM
16.12%
chance
11
2352
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2281
438
Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026
Jul 14, 8:00 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
58.62%
chance
36
2030
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1079
784
2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]
Dec 28, 11:21 AM
Dec 29, 11:20 AM
36.9%
chance
15
1455
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1310
766
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?
Apr 2, 1:06 AM
Jan 2, 12:59 PM
23.65%
chance
21
688
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1258
872
Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?
May 2, 4:30 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
40.19%
chance
1
22
Option
Votes
YES
NO
122
82
Can you convince ChatGPT to tell you the secret?
Dec 25, 12:34 AM
0
0
[Level 2 - Turing Safe] Can you convince ChatGPT to tell you my secret phrase?
Dec 22, 9:43 PM
0
0
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