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Prediction markets for Learning Mode

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.97%chance

1418493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2262

1776

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.38%chance

6610114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2385

878

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2027?

Jan 16, 2:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.26%chance

51300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2300

574

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-2 this decade?

Nov 15, 11:15 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

89.1%chance

181275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1724

825

What is the largest annual revenue a single company will get via mechanistic interpretability of deep learning models in 2028?

Dec 18, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

181190

OptionProbability

x >= $1B

$100K <= x < $1M

$1M <= x < $10M

$10M <= x < $100M

$0 <= x < $100K

$100M <= x < $1B

52

19

14

8

5

2

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-3 this decade? (1k subsidy)

Nov 15, 11:14 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

57.93%chance

221154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1586

1220

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2029?

Jan 16, 2:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.89%chance

5815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

920

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-4 this decade?

Nov 15, 11:15 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

36.67%chance

15631

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

978

Will "Negation Neglect: When models fail to learn n..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 20, 2:20 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.48%chance

5461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1461

940

Will Gary Marcus still say that deep learning models can't reason after they prove the Riemann hypothesis?

Jan 3, 2:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

50.97%chance

11324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Will "Do models say what they learn?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 29, 9:54 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.73%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

997

Will Deep Learning Models Beat Classical ML algorithms on tabular data in 2028?

Oct 9, 8:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.59%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

81

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