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Prediction markets for Learning Mode

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.24%chance

639302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1859

958

Will scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?

Feb 27, 11:31 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

15.34%chance

533171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1805

749

By 2026 will any RL agent with learned causal models of its environment achieve superhuman performance on >=10 Atari environments?

Nov 15, 5:00 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.22%chance

162710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

949

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-2 this decade?

Nov 15, 11:15 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

84%chance

171188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1211

903

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-3 this decade? (1k subsidy)

Nov 15, 11:14 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

57.93%chance

221154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1586

1220

What is the largest annual revenue a single company will get via mechanistic interpretability of deep learning models in 2028?

Dec 18, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16722

OptionProbability

$10M <= x < $100M

$100M <= x < $1B

$1M <= x < $10M

$100K <= x < $1M

x >= $1B

$0 <= x < $100K

34

25

17

14

5

4

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-4 this decade?

Nov 15, 11:15 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

36.67%chance

14621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

978

Will any transfer learning model, trained for any amount of time on one Atari environment, outperform the median human learning curve on most other Atari environments when transferred by 2026?

Jun 22, 5:25 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

47.23%chance

8267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

661

447

Will Gary Marcus still say that deep learning models can't reason after they prove the Riemann hypothesis?

Jan 3, 2:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33.32%chance

6174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

71

Meta-Learning Compositionality (MLC) in state of the art AI models by Oct. 2025?

Oct 26, 11:00 AMOct 1, 9:59 PM

17.37%chance

7155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

258

77

Will Deep Learning Models Beat Classical ML algorithms on tabular data in 2028?

Oct 9, 8:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.59%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

81

Will "Do models say what they learn?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 29, 9:54 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.43%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

970

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