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Prediction markets for Legal Brain

When will Bryan Johnson die?

Jan 7, 6:36 PMMar 4, 2:59 AM

199266

OptionProbability

Before 2300

Before 2200

Before 2100

Before 2090

Before 2080

Before 2070

Before 2060

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

Before 2026

95

94

93

92

82

56

36

21

17

7

0

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

Will any rights be granted to a silicon-based intelligence before 2050?

Jan 2, 12:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

61%chance

442537

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1163

849

If human brain emulations are created, will the 10 highest GDP nations all have granted them human rights after a year?

May 15, 7:09 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

21.67%chance

321775

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

949

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

68.62%chance

211582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1331

784

Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?

Feb 18, 9:18 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

49.15%chance

33622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

970

Will Nectome still be operating in 2032?

Mar 18, 10:43 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM

66.98%chance

3607

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1424

702

If I die, will I be successfully cryopreserved?

Jul 24, 9:53 PMDec 31, 10:46 PM

60.34%chance

7337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

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