Lens News
Prediction markets for Lens
OptionProbability
20
11
11
11
10
10
8
6
6
4
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
47
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
31
24
15
9
4
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
32
28
14
13
7
4
2
1
Will a useful contact lens display be commercially available by 2030
Dec 22, 5:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
25.69%chance
311200
OptionVotes
1338
782
If the identity of Satoshi is ever definitively proven, who will it be?
Oct 10, 10:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
22400
OptionProbability
35
32
10
8
7
2
2
2
2
1
OptionVotes
1169
927
Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?
Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
48.92%chance
4194
OptionVotes
1022
979
Solar gravitational lens at 542 AU to image exoplanets by EOY 2055?
Mar 31, 5:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
26.98%chance
3103
OptionVotes
224
89
Will a Terrascope (a space telescope that uses a planet's atmosphere as a giant lens) launch and successfully perform observations by the end of 2042?
Sep 7, 11:57 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM
27.59%chance
471
OptionVotes
162
62
OptionProbability
28
20
15
12
12
12
OptionProbability
100
100

