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Prediction markets for Letter of Intent

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

11.93%chance

23459582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2327

662

Will Sam Altman create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 25, 5:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.95%chance

282500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2526

699

Will TIME's person of the year be "The Migrant" (or similar category)?

Nov 28, 4:15 PMDec 28, 11:59 PM

4%chance

211474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

490

20

10000+ passenger eVTOLs sold by one company by 2027?

Oct 17, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.24%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2117

472

Will Heart Aerospace ES-30 make its first revenue flight (at least 100 km) before 2030?

Nov 15, 9:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.28%chance

3215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

25

Will I be a regular smoker by the end of my PhD?

Apr 18, 12:49 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

23.39%chance

6170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

88

At the end of 2027, what will be the 'official' name of BRICS?

Aug 24, 1:41 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

399

OptionProbability

A new, non-acronym name

BRICS

An acronym of all the member states' names

54

36

10

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