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Prediction markets for level Transformer

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Aug 25, 8:38 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.25%chance

13325906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1646

1366

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2124

894

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Aug 25, 1:42 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.23%chance

657890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1727

880

Will the regime of Iran fall by the end of March 2026?

Mar 3, 2:11 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

4%chance

383091

OptionVotes

YES

NO

490

20

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Nov 21, 3:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.55%chance

222594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1143

656

Will AI usage in 2030 be split in tiers where the best and most expensive models are used rarely compared to cheaper and lower-quality models?

Dec 23, 9:10 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

91%chance

231906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2000

824

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

EU officially a federation by January 1, 2040?

Mar 23, 8:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.36%chance

15647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

439

232

Will early transformative AIs primarily use text?

Oct 2, 2:57 PMOct 10, 6:59 AM

54%chance

12264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

141

Will future large video model (understanding) use pixel loss or embedding loss?

Feb 8, 8:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

793

OptionProbability

Neither

Pixel loss

Embedding Loss

38

35

27

Does the Eleuther Mafia have higher levels of autism/Asperger's than the Transformers mafia?

Oct 19, 7:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.85%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

77

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