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Prediction markets for level Transformer

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Aug 25, 8:38 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

34.47%chance

13025456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1630

890

Will we get AGI before 2026?

Aug 4, 11:46 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.81%chance

8613747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2565

934

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.18%chance

5112040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2190

891

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Aug 25, 1:42 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9%chance

587120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1589

893

Will GPT, or AI systems that have GPT as their main component, become as reliably factual as Wikipedia, before 2026?

Apr 11, 10:09 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.17%chance

292624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

887

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Nov 21, 3:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

44.37%chance

222530

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1206

568

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will AI usage in 2030 be split in tiers where the best and most expensive models are used rarely compared to cheaper and lower-quality models?

Dec 23, 9:10 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

83.36%chance

21941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1135

944

Will a human player defeat the SSBM AI Phillip in 2025?

Nov 20, 2:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.37%chance

5320

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1287

777

Will early transformative AIs primarily use text?

Oct 2, 2:57 PMOct 10, 6:59 AM

47.38%chance

10209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

136

Does the Eleuther Mafia have higher levels of autism/Asperger's than the Transformers mafia?

Oct 19, 7:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.85%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

77

Will "Modern Transformers are AGI, and Human-Level" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Mar 26, 9:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.64%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

117

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