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Prediction markets for Liberal government

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

78.94%chance

73804

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

985

Should society have pivoted from artificial intelligence to krantz collective intelligence?

Jan 21, 8:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.94%chance

41861

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1729

578

Will the Colombian government and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels announce a comprehensive agreement before the end of President Gustavo Petro’s term?

Jan 15, 4:17 PMAug 8, 2:59 AM

21.52%chance

151599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1960

387

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

Sep 25, 2:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

23.74%chance

241179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1280

886

Will the U.S. government attempt to restrict VPN usage before January 1st, 2030?

Aug 9, 3:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.75%chance

31920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

883

Next Canadian federal election by April 30th, 2027?

Apr 30, 5:32 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

28.84%chance

5705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1571

637

Will the USA "liberate the people of Britain from their tyrannical government" before the next US presidential election?

Jan 6, 9:00 AMNov 6, 11:59 PM

3.07%chance

9618

OptionVotes

YES

NO

562

18

How long will the Mark Carney liberal government last?

May 2, 1:42 PMMay 2, 1:42 PM

18516

OptionProbability

2 to 3 years

1 to 2 years

3 to 4 years

Full 4-year term or more

6 to 12 months

Less than 6 months

38

26

21

12

2

1

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Oct 2, 1:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.2%chance

9515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1272

786

Will sortition be used as an alternative to elections for any administrative division of EU/US government before 2060?

Aug 28, 12:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

76.93%chance

10268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

960

Will sortition be used as an alternative to elections for selecting national governments in EU or US before 2060?

Aug 28, 8:18 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12.51%chance

3191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

199

77

Has PLA General He Weidong (何卫东) been arrested?

Mar 18, 5:01 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

69.23%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

67

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