Liberation Day News

Trump Raises US Tariffs to 17.3% Since April 2, Highest Since 1930s, Fueling Inflation Expectations

5 days ago

Will the party that wins the next Australian federal election have a majority in the Senate?

Mar 16, 8:10 AMSep 27, 2:29 PM

1%chance

103490

OptionVotes

YES

2088

Which countries or groups will retaliate against Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs by the end of 2025?

Apr 6, 12:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

192133

OptionProbability

China

Canada

European Union

Australia

Mexico

India

Japan

South Korea

Switzerland

100

Will "induced wind" power plants exist by 2050?

Jul 11, 8:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.3%chance

131684

OptionVotes

YES

1380

928

In which year will the next Canadian election take place?

Apr 29, 5:17 AMJan 2, 6:13 AM

17728

OptionProbability

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

Other

Next pope regarded as conservative (YES) or liberal (NO)?

Apr 21, 3:57 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

22.99%chance

26445

OptionVotes

YES

183

Will Ed Davey lead the Liberal Democrat party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

60.76%chance

6433

OptionVotes

YES

1244

804

When will Mark Carney release the Canadian Federal Budget?

May 29, 3:57 AMJan 1, 4:53 AM

4340

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Jul 14, 2:29 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

4188

OptionProbability

Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB

Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment

Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01

Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01

Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)

Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day Tarrifs?

May 14, 2:40 AMMar 2, 3:34 AM

54.43%chance

9171

OptionVotes

YES

114

Will the U.S. Supreme Court issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day tariffs?

May 29, 2:56 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31.24%chance

6101

OptionVotes

YES

148

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Not retaliating rewarded (Trump tariffs)

Apr 30, 3:52 AMDec 31, 2:12 AM

59.02%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

120

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Prediction markets for Liberation Day

Prediction markets for Liberation Day

Prediction markets for Liberation Day

Will the party that wins the next Australian federal election have a majority in the Senate?

Which countries or groups will retaliate against Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs by the end of 2025?

Will "induced wind" power plants exist by 2050?

In which year will the next Canadian election take place?

Next pope regarded as conservative (YES) or liberal (NO)?

Will Ed Davey lead the Liberal Democrat party into the next General Election?

When will Mark Carney release the Canadian Federal Budget?

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day Tarrifs?

Will the U.S. Supreme Court issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day tariffs?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

Not retaliating rewarded (Trump tariffs)

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