Liberation Day News

US Two- and Five-Year Yields Hit Three-Month Lows on Fed-Cut Bets

6 months ago

US Domestic Policy

Washington DC

Politics

Democrats Condemn Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Rhetoric in D.C. Crime Crackdown

6 months ago

Will the AI bubble pop by X date?

Oct 26, 11:38 AMDec 31, 10:29 AM

638135

OptionProbability

By 3-31-2028

By 12-31-2027

By 9-30-2027

By 6-30-2027

By 3-31-2027

By 12-31-2026

By 9-30-2026

By 6-30-2026

By 3-31-2026

By 12-31-2025

Conditinal on Crimea being taken by Ukranian army, will Russia avoid using nuclear weapons?

Dec 21, 11:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.95%chance

472916

OptionVotes

YES

1115

958

Will "induced wind" power plants exist by 2050?

Jul 11, 8:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.3%chance

131684

OptionVotes

YES

1380

928

In which year will the next Canadian election take place?

Apr 29, 5:17 AMJan 2, 6:13 AM

17748

OptionProbability

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

Other

What will be the result of the US Supreme Court in Learning Resources v. Trump?

Nov 21, 11:19 PMJun 30, 10:12 PM

8628

OptionProbability

Court Rules Tariffs under IEEPA are unconstitutional (strikes down), AND allows at least SOME repayments for companies who have paid tariffs under the IEEPA justification

Court rules that tariffs are constitutional (because Congress didn’t exercise objection right to state of emergency…or other reason).

Court Rules Tariffs under IEEPA are unconstitutional (strikes down), but blocks repayments for companies who have paid tariffs under the IEEPA justification.

Court somehow fudges, or refuses to finalise clear opinion

Other

Pierre Polievre out as Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by end of year

Jan 18, 8:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.73%chance

14576

OptionVotes

YES

208

Will Ed Davey lead the Liberal Democrat party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

59.54%chance

7499

OptionVotes

YES

1213

824

Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day Tarrifs?

May 14, 2:40 AMMar 2, 3:34 AM

42.65%chance

13339

OptionVotes

YES

120

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Jul 14, 2:29 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

4216

OptionProbability

Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB

Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)

Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment

Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01

Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01

Will the U.S. Supreme Court issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day tariffs?

May 29, 2:56 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.4%chance

8126

OptionVotes

YES

138

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Which election forecast is modeling uncertainty better?

Sep 19, 8:10 AM

Liberation Day News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Liberation Day

Prediction markets for Liberation Day

Prediction markets for Liberation Day

Will the AI bubble pop by X date?

Conditinal on Crimea being taken by Ukranian army, will Russia avoid using nuclear weapons?

Will "induced wind" power plants exist by 2050?

In which year will the next Canadian election take place?

What will be the result of the US Supreme Court in Learning Resources v. Trump?

Pierre Polievre out as Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by end of year

Will Ed Davey lead the Liberal Democrat party into the next General Election?

Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day Tarrifs?

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Will the U.S. Supreme Court issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day tariffs?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

Which election forecast is modeling uncertainty better?

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