Liberation Day News

US Two- and Five-Year Yields Hit Three-Month Lows on Fed-Cut Bets

1 year ago

US Domestic Policy

Washington DC

Politics

Democrats Condemn Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Rhetoric in D.C. Crime Crackdown

1 year ago

Will the AI bubble pop by X date?

Oct 26, 11:38 AMDec 31, 10:29 AM

7212335

OptionProbability

By 3-31-2028

By 12-31-2027

By 9-30-2027

By 6-30-2027

By 3-31-2027

By 12-31-2026

By 9-30-2026

By 12-31-2025

By 3-31-2026

By 6-30-2026

Conditinal on Crimea being taken by Ukranian army, will Russia avoid using nuclear weapons?

Dec 21, 11:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.94%chance

502984

OptionVotes

YES

1114

958

Will "induced wind" power plants exist by 2050?

Jul 11, 8:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.3%chance

131684

OptionVotes

YES

1380

928

Pierre Polievre out as Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by end of year

Jan 18, 8:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.85%chance

181007

OptionVotes

YES

207

In which year will the next Canadian election take place?

Apr 29, 5:17 AMJan 2, 6:13 AM

17748

OptionProbability

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

Other

Will Ed Davey lead the Liberal Democrat party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

58%chance

9557

OptionVotes

YES

1175

851

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Jul 14, 2:29 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

4251

OptionProbability

Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB

Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)

Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment

Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01

Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01

Will the Coalition next split before the next election?

Feb 8, 4:59 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

43.52%chance

6225

OptionVotes

YES

136

Will a Liberal MP or Senator join Community Strong Australia by the next Australian federal election?

Jun 25, 1:37 AMMay 19, 1:59 PM

25.71%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

170

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Which election forecast is modeling uncertainty better?

Sep 19, 8:10 AM

Liberation Day News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Liberation Day

Prediction markets for Liberation Day

Prediction markets for Liberation Day

Will the AI bubble pop by X date?

Conditinal on Crimea being taken by Ukranian army, will Russia avoid using nuclear weapons?

Will "induced wind" power plants exist by 2050?

Pierre Polievre out as Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by end of year

In which year will the next Canadian election take place?

Will Ed Davey lead the Liberal Democrat party into the next General Election?

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Will the Coalition next split before the next election?

Will a Liberal MP or Senator join Community Strong Australia by the next Australian federal election?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

Which election forecast is modeling uncertainty better?

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