LiDAR News

Nintendo Switch 2 prop bets [Add answers!]

Sep 14, 10:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4927206

OptionProbability

Compatible with Switch 1 Joy-Cons (even if only Bluetooth)

Backwards compatible with physical Switch 1 games

Backwards compatible with digital Switch 1 games

Crossplay with Switch 1 in any first-party game released within the first 6 months after launch

Multiple launch SKUs

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "Mario" in the name

Name of the console contains the word "Switch"

The name of the console is correctly leaked over two weeks before it is revealed

Launch day system software includes a Mii maker

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "World" in the name

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) that also came out/is coming out for Switch 1

Backwards compatible with physical Switch 1 games, AND allows you to play a better looking or performing version of at least one Switch 1 game with the original Switch 1 cartridge within 6 months of the console launching

Joy-Cons can be used as a mouse

A new pro controller will be released on the same day the console comes out

New SKU not available at launch available within one year after release

More than two themes before 2027

Any launch SKU has a MSRP not ending in "9.99" in the US

Name of the console contains the word "Super"

Name of the console contains the word "New"

Any launch SKU has an OLED screen

Over 180 days between reveal and release (July 15 deadline)

Revealed this week (before September 21st, 11:59:59pm ET)

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "Zelda" in the name

Launch day system software includes an internet browser (general-purpose browser that deliberately allows access to the wider Web, like the 3DS or Wii U browser)

No launch SKU has 12GB RAM

No launch SKU has 256GB storage

Name of at least one launch SKU contains "XL"

The cheapest launch SKU costs ≤$300

Will have some kind of "achievements" or "trophies" system (under any name)

The Joy-Cons have inside-out tracking (via camera or LiDAR)

Has a social media or video-sharing service called Vidmiio (announced or available by launch)

First-party Joy-Cons attach or detach using electromagnets

A launch SKU has Joy-Cons that have a non-grayscale shell (as opposed to the black shells in the trailer).

100

Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR?

Nov 2, 7:43 PMDec 2, 5:59 AM

23.51%chance

828854

OptionVotes

YES

1445

803

Will most Tesla-owned robotaxis use Lidar, at launch?

Jun 22, 3:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.36%chance

267474

OptionVotes

YES

5359

187

Will the first self-driving car company to deploy in 50 cities use an end-to-end approach?

Oct 6, 1:13 PMJan 14, 4:59 AM

72.59%chance

181548

OptionVotes

YES

1736

350

Once level 5 self-driving cars are available to the public, will any pre-2024 Tesla model be capable of it?

Oct 13, 9:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.92%chance

19812

OptionVotes

YES

1010

970

What AI-related companies will quintuple their value by mid 2027?

Nov 11, 3:08 AMJul 6, 3:59 AM

11788

OptionProbability

Micron

SMCI

Velodar / Ouster (OUST)

Symbotic

NVIDIA

AMD

ASML

Tesla

TSMC

Lam Research

Softbank

Mobileye

ARM

Qualcomm

When will vision-only level 4 self-driving be widely deployed?

Dec 24, 8:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9568

OptionProbability

Before 2033

Before 2032

Before 2031

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

AI: When will a phone out-drive a human?

Dec 13, 7:02 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

42.07%chance

8188

OptionProbability

YES

371

314

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Nintendo Switch 2 prop bets [Add answers!]

Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR?

Will most Tesla-owned robotaxis use Lidar, at launch?

Will the first self-driving car company to deploy in 50 cities use an end-to-end approach?

Once level 5 self-driving cars are available to the public, will any pre-2024 Tesla model be capable of it?

What AI-related companies will quintuple their value by mid 2027?

When will vision-only level 4 self-driving be widely deployed?

AI: When will a phone out-drive a human?

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