Lightning News

SoFi Taps Lightspark to Offer Bitcoin-Based Cross-Border Payments

1 year ago

Will Bitcoin reach $1 million by 2030?

May 30, 12:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.5%chance

3926973

OptionVotes

YES

3086

324

Will Apple release a Bitcoin hardware wallet before 2030?

Sep 11, 2:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.92%chance

315354

OptionVotes

YES

1820

777

Will Canada sign a binding procurement contract for the Saab Gripen fighter before the end of 2026?

Jan 22, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.48%chance

204643

OptionVotes

YES

1212

825

If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it be able to survive these temperatures within a year?

Apr 22, 2:34 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

263152

OptionProbability

1687 K (melting point of silicon)

5800 K (solar photosphere i.e. Sun's visible surface, slightly hotter than Earth's core)

28,000 K (lightning strike)

15,000,000 K (15 million K, solar core)

300,000,000 K (300 million K, thermonuclear bomb)

100,000,000,000 K (100 billion K, supernova)

1.416784(16) x 10^32 K (Planck temperature, Big Bang)

Will 3 or more new countries adopt Bitcoin as its legal tender by 2030?

Aug 10, 12:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43.67%chance

392144

OptionVotes

YES

1022

960

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

57.61%chance

552029

OptionVotes

YES

1261

970

Will 2 or more new countries adopt Bitcoin as its legal tender by 2030?

Aug 10, 9:11 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

45.12%chance

331997

OptionVotes

YES

1308

596

Will Manifold enable purchasing Mana with Bitcoin before 2030?

Aug 30, 5:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.48%chance

341197

OptionVotes

YES

1101

916

[Add options] Which of these highly unlikely things will happen to me this century?

Aug 29, 1:03 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

331062

OptionProbability

I lose my virginity 🤯 (literally never gonna happen)

I don’t die 💀

I save >1000 human lives 🚑

I get 1M followers / subscribers on any single online account 😎

I unironically reject and condemn all of my current philosophical / political beliefs 😈

I win a hyper-prestigious international prize 🏆

I become a billionaire 🤑

I become head of state / government of a UN-recognised nation 👑

I get struck by lightning 🌩️

I walk on the moon 🚀

Shark attack 🦈

I shuffle a deck of cards and it ends up in exact ascending order 🃏

Which crypto currency technologies will be usable in the X everything app?

Nov 8, 1:45 AMDec 15, 10:59 PM

2972

OptionProbability

Other

Bitcoin - Lightning Network

Ethereum

Bitcoin

There will be no such thing

Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?

Jul 16, 10:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.07%chance

3300

OptionVotes

YES

1198

835

Will we get another high quality data point on Ball Lightning by 2030?

Oct 4, 6:15 PMOct 8, 3:59 AM

69.19%chance

442

OptionVotes

YES

150

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Will Bitcoin reach $1 million by 2030?

Will Apple release a Bitcoin hardware wallet before 2030?

Will Canada sign a binding procurement contract for the Saab Gripen fighter before the end of 2026?

If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it be able to survive these temperatures within a year?

Will 3 or more new countries adopt Bitcoin as its legal tender by 2030?

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Will 2 or more new countries adopt Bitcoin as its legal tender by 2030?

Will Manifold enable purchasing Mana with Bitcoin before 2030?

[Add options] Which of these highly unlikely things will happen to me this century?

Which crypto currency technologies will be usable in the X everything app?

Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?

Will we get another high quality data point on Ball Lightning by 2030?

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