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Prediction markets for Like That

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

23.47%chance

177227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2427

402

Will there be a humanoid robot that can move with human-like precision and flexibility before April of 2028?

Mar 14, 6:18 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM

43.27%chance

454949

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1074

828

Will there exist open-source text-to-game AI models that can create a game like Halo 3 just by prompting by end of 2025?

Dec 31, 1:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.02%chance

254111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3897

793

In 2030, will it seem more likely that vaccines contribute to autism than it did in 2023?

Aug 18, 9:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.27%chance

452964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

955

will this tweet hold up: I predict that chess will be essentially fully solved (like checkers) within 10 years.

May 13, 4:45 PMMay 14, 6:59 AM

10.75%chance

251444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

972

782

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.83%chance

22864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

534

How comfident do you think one should be that their crush doesn't like them back so that it's better not to confess ?

May 25, 7:46 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

38.62%chance

6573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1261

793

By 2075 there will be an OTC product that can change your sexual orientation to whatever you’d like at the time.

Oct 8, 3:57 AMJan 15, 6:59 AM

33.78%chance

1400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1400

714

Which organization will most likely build the AI that destroys humanity? (See special resolution method)

May 27, 4:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6257

OptionProbability

Other

OpenAI

Meta

Google

Deep Mind

Anthropic

@Mira

39

24

17

14

3

2

1

Will the claim that people that grew up with GPT-like systems are smarter be plausible by 2050?

Mar 21, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.31%chance

10140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

250

100

When will a video game exist with a practically infinite world (like Minecraft) that looks as nice as the BOTW world?

May 31, 3:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.75%chance

7105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

87

Conditional on WW3 before 2030, will I decide that s-risks are at least 10% more likely than in worlds without war?

Jan 21, 12:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.89%chance

423

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

74

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