Likeness News

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

678151302

OptionProbability

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

No cease-fire of 6 months

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

No Ukraine anymore

No Russia anymore

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Jun 17, 4:16 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

48126850

OptionProbability

It will have a new character (not just a revision or morph)

Jorbs will play it on twitch live in the first week of release

In mid 2026 there will be more concurrent players on StS 2 than on StS 1

The final boss will be the heart (or some obvious natural evolution of that character)

All current cards for at least one character will be playable

It will be released first in 2024

It will be released first in 2025

There will be some game mechanic like ascension levels but they will go higher or take more steps than sts1's ascension 20

It will have four playable characters on release

100

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.9%chance

19242525

OptionVotes

YES

10424

9668

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

14.19%chance

4221426

OptionVotes

YES

24591

4071

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Jan 14, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

30%chance

7416646

OptionVotes

YES

1037

853

Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030?

May 8, 8:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.51%chance

5014608

OptionVotes

YES

2801

671

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.99%chance

5513610

OptionVotes

YES

20519

7234

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

21.86%chance

209674

OptionVotes

YES

2507

379

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

226519

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

Before 2026

Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030

Feb 8, 2:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

88.66%chance

334969

OptionVotes

YES

2971

1788

Do you like 38% odds?

Jun 24, 6:12 PMJun 30, 6:12 PM

37.92%chance

423

OptionVotes

YES

10021

9987

What restaurants in NYC will I like if I go to them? [ADD RESPONSES]

May 27, 7:03 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

OptionProbability

Gage & Tollner

Dhamaka

Theodora

Atoboy

Tadhana

Semma

Dirt Candy

Rezdora

Crown Shy

Atera

Farra

Zou Zou

Likeness News

Prediction markets for Likeness

Prediction markets for Likeness

Prediction markets for Likeness

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030?

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030

Do you like 38% odds?

What restaurants in NYC will I like if I go to them? [ADD RESPONSES]

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