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Prediction markets for Likeness

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

684153557

OptionProbability

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

No cease-fire of 6 months

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

No Ukraine anymore

No Russia anymore

61

23

9

5

1

1

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.47%chance

19242620

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10568

9573

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

8.29%chance

5830374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33270

3010

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Jan 14, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

60.22%chance

8020308

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1441

335

Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030?

May 8, 8:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.51%chance

5014608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2801

671

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.99%chance

5513610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20519

7234

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

268762

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

Before 2026

83

8

8

7

4

0

Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030

Feb 8, 2:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

92.38%chance

335782

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4265

1655

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30.73%chance

764207

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1281

1116

Do you like 6% odds?

Oct 9, 5:00 PMFeb 26, 3:00 PM

6.21%chance

52157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10022

9661

Do you like 94% odds?

Oct 2, 7:10 PMDec 11, 7:10 PM

93.73%chance

569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10029

9564

What restaurants in NYC will I like if I go to them? [ADD RESPONSES]

May 27, 7:03 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

00

OptionProbability

Gage & Tollner

Dhamaka

Theodora

Atoboy

Tadhana

Semma

Dirt Candy

Rezdora

Crown Shy

Atera

Farra

Zou Zou

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

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