Likeness News

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

673150599

OptionProbability

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

No cease-fire of 6 months

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

No Ukraine anymore

No Russia anymore

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Jun 17, 4:16 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

47110441

OptionProbability

It will have a new character (not just a revision or morph)

Jorbs will play it on twitch live in the first week of release

In mid 2026 there will be more concurrent players on StS 2 than on StS 1

The final boss will be the heart (or some obvious natural evolution of that character)

All current cards for at least one character will be playable

It will be released first in 2024

It will be released first in 2025

There will be some game mechanic like ascension levels but they will go higher or take more steps than sts1's ascension 20

It will have four playable characters on release

100

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

57.98%chance

18941852

OptionVotes

YES

9995

9955

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Jan 14, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27.61%chance

7316505

OptionVotes

YES

1006

929

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

21.37%chance

3715435

OptionVotes

YES

19178

5218

Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030?

May 8, 8:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.03%chance

4914598

OptionVotes

YES

2832

661

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.13%chance

5412300

OptionVotes

YES

19158

7448

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

36.35%chance

177427

OptionVotes

YES

1952

602

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

226519

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

Before 2026

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30.73%chance

764207

OptionVotes

YES

1281

1116

Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030

Feb 8, 2:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.62%chance

313758

OptionVotes

YES

2739

1819

What restaurants in NYC will I like if I go to them? [ADD RESPONSES]

May 27, 7:03 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

OptionProbability

Gage & Tollner

Dhamaka

Theodora

Atoboy

Tadhana

Semma

Dirt Candy

Rezdora

Crown Shy

Atera

Farra

Zou Zou

Likeness News

Prediction markets for Likeness

Prediction markets for Likeness

Prediction markets for Likeness

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030?

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030

What restaurants in NYC will I like if I go to them? [ADD RESPONSES]

Latest stories