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Prediction markets for Limit

Will climate change be successfully limited to under 2°C at the end of 2045?

Apr 17, 3:47 PMDec 17, 9:59 PM

18.86%chance

12114236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2251

974

Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Nov 21, 4:34 PMNov 28, 10:59 PM

7.18%chance

710104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20076

7889

International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?

Jul 7, 3:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.05%chance

234313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12657

7939

If term limits are repealed, will Barack Obama run for president in 2028?

Nov 8, 2:31 AMNov 7, 4:59 AM

26.54%chance

102965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1664

601

Will limit order UI be understandable by mid 2026?

Jan 5, 9:32 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

20.42%chance

202570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1974

507

Will Republicans lawmakers try to repeal the current presidential term limit before the 2028 election?

Nov 14, 12:10 AMNov 8, 7:59 AM

24.48%chance

171964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1811

587

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

40.38%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

Municipal bond interest tax break limited by EOY?

Mar 20, 2:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19%chance

31152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2085

490

Will the Supreme Court issue a merits decision that limits or overturns state or local rent-control laws before 2030?

Nov 23, 1:47 AMJan 2, 1:46 AM

31.21%chance

7800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1485

674

Will Manifold allow sub-1% limit orders by EOY 2026?

Aug 14, 5:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.98%chance

7450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1426

701

Will there be new federal regulations in the US limiting employers' access to employee computer activity data by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:32 AMJun 23, 4:59 AM

41.5%chance

5245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

842

Will Montreal remove its 233m height limit on buildings?

Aug 4, 1:02 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

56.41%chance

10209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

80

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