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Top stories

Pakistan's CTD and ISI Dismantle RAW-Linked Assassination Network in Karachi, Uncover Training Centers, Complete Malir Jail Escape Probe

Pakistan's CTD and ISI Dismantle RAW-Linked Assassination Network in Karachi, Uncover Training Centers, Complete Malir Jail Escape Probe

Authors

4

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Line of Control

When will the Russian invasion of Ukraine end? ($1000M sub)

Oct 2, 10:56 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

22378568

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2030+

2029

2025

2024

2023

40

22

18

11

5

3

1

0

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

11.93%chance

23459582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2327

662

Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2026?

Oct 30, 9:24 PMJan 6, 10:59 PM

3.11%chance

7417038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4354

642

Will Trump say that Moon should become a state before the end of his term?

Feb 11, 7:37 AMJan 22, 5:59 AM

15%chance

638605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

420

Will Kaliningrad achieve independence from Russia by the end of 2026?

Feb 4, 5:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.59%chance

488227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1239

943

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Dec 27, 8:26 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

28.29%chance

213651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1592

628

What will be the first celestial body other than Earth, Moon and Mars to be visited by humans?

Apr 2, 1:15 PMApr 10, 3:59 AM

263346

OptionProbability

Callisto

Ganymede

Europa

Titan

Mercury

Venus

Io

Other

51

17

16

8

5

1

1

1

When will the first murder of a civilian happen in a US city by a robot or AI device where an operator is not nearby

Aug 3, 12:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

152979

OptionProbability

In or after 2025

In or after 2030

In or after 2040

In or after 2050

In 2024

97

56

45

23

0

Will NYC subway trains (on any line) still have conductors in 2035?

May 25, 12:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.87%chance

8731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

39

Will Tesla release a Cybercab with a Steering Wheel?

Nov 4, 5:45 PMDec 31, 5:33 PM

55.86%chance

3325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1125

889

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

103

Will BART trains (all lines) have no staff onboard by 2035?

May 20, 12:41 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.12%chance

580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

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