Linear News

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029?

Mar 11, 3:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.99%chance

361784

OptionVotes

YES

2201

1644

How many House seats will the Republicans flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Jan 24, 9:14 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

15%chance

51407

OptionVotes

YES

1000

How many House seats will the Democrats flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Jan 24, 9:13 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

29.95%chance

3791

OptionVotes

YES

1096

723

How many House seats will flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Jan 24, 9:10 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

41.41%chance

2560

OptionVotes

YES

1086

864

Republican Senate seats after 2026 election? (45-55, linear)

Jan 11, 3:42 AMNov 3, 12:00 AM

58.57%chance

5414

OptionVotes

YES

1189

841

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 3:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.56%chance

10334

OptionVotes

YES

217

Democratic House seats after 2026 election? (200-250, linear)

Jan 11, 3:45 AMNov 2, 11:59 PM

55.07%chance

4323

OptionVotes

YES

1107

903

What will Stephen Colbert do after Late Night ends?

Dec 26, 4:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10175

OptionProbability

He will have a podcast.

Write a book

He will have an online streaming show not associated with a linear TV network.

He will have a show on another traditional broadcast or cable network.

How many housing units will California authorize, 2025-2028? (linear, 250k-750k)

Oct 29, 4:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.01%chance

2172

OptionVotes

YES

2772

2450

Will "Detecting Strategic Deception Using Linear Probes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 21, 8:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

2122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Future particle colliders

Aug 17, 3:32 AMJan 2, 4:29 AM

675

OptionProbability

A muon collider will start construction in the US before the end of year 2050.

The International Linear Collider (ILC) will start construction in Japan before the end of year 2050.

A final decision is made by the CERN Council to not proceed with the Future Circular Collider (FCC) project by the end of year 2040.

The Circular Electron Positron Collider (CEPC) project is approved by the Chinese government and features in the five-year plan of 2026-2030.

Bitcoin 4-year price cyclicality regression

Jan 23, 12:56 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

335

OptionProbability

constant

cos (2 pi t)

linear

sin (2 pi t)

Linear News

Prediction markets for Linear

Prediction markets for Linear

Prediction markets for Linear

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029?

How many House seats will the Republicans flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

How many House seats will the Democrats flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

How many House seats will flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Republican Senate seats after 2026 election? (45-55, linear)

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2026?

Democratic House seats after 2026 election? (200-250, linear)

What will Stephen Colbert do after Late Night ends?

How many housing units will California authorize, 2025-2028? (linear, 250k-750k)

Will "Detecting Strategic Deception Using Linear Probes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Future particle colliders

Bitcoin 4-year price cyclicality regression

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