Linear News

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029?

Mar 11, 3:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.57%chance

423519

OptionVotes

YES

2590

1589

How many House seats will the Republicans flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Jan 24, 9:14 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

14.36%chance

61579

OptionVotes

YES

1044

992

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 3:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.08%chance

171210

OptionVotes

YES

237

How many House seats will the Democrats flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Jan 24, 9:13 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

28.02%chance

41070

OptionVotes

YES

1074

778

Democratic House seats after 2026 election? (200-250, linear)

Jan 11, 3:45 AMNov 2, 11:59 PM

53.94%chance

91031

OptionVotes

YES

1082

924

Republican Senate seats after 2026 election? (45-55, linear)

Jan 11, 3:42 AMNov 3, 12:00 AM

45.88%chance

6817

OptionVotes

YES

1086

921

How many House seats will flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Jan 24, 9:10 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

41.94%chance

2703

OptionVotes

YES

1094

852

AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033

Mar 8, 7:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12205

OptionProbability

Exponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe

Hyperexponential (indicates push for ASI and some real self improvement loop) singularity / intelligence explosion

Other

Linear (some level of saturation, no AGI imminent)

How many housing units will California authorize, 2025-2028? (linear, 250k-750k)

Oct 29, 4:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.01%chance

2172

OptionVotes

YES

2772

2450

Will "Detecting Strategic Deception Using Linear Probes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 21, 8:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

2122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Future particle colliders

Aug 17, 3:32 AMJan 2, 4:29 AM

675

OptionProbability

A muon collider will start construction in the US before the end of year 2050.

The International Linear Collider (ILC) will start construction in Japan before the end of year 2050.

A final decision is made by the CERN Council to not proceed with the Future Circular Collider (FCC) project by the end of year 2040.

The Circular Electron Positron Collider (CEPC) project is approved by the Chinese government and features in the five-year plan of 2026-2030.

Bitcoin 4-year price cyclicality regression

Jan 23, 12:56 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

335

OptionProbability

constant

cos (2 pi t)

linear

sin (2 pi t)

Linear News

Prediction markets for Linear

Prediction markets for Linear

Prediction markets for Linear

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029?

How many House seats will the Republicans flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2026?

How many House seats will the Democrats flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Democratic House seats after 2026 election? (200-250, linear)

Republican Senate seats after 2026 election? (45-55, linear)

How many House seats will flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033

How many housing units will California authorize, 2025-2028? (linear, 250k-750k)

Will "Detecting Strategic Deception Using Linear Probes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Future particle colliders

Bitcoin 4-year price cyclicality regression

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