Linear News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

858583544

OptionVotes

YES

89425

8110

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.76%chance

4114764

OptionVotes

YES

14172

7056

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029?

Mar 11, 3:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.09%chance

464236

OptionVotes

YES

3133

1386

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 3:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.92%chance

241803

OptionVotes

YES

439

How many housing units will California authorize, 2025-2028? (linear, 250k-750k)

Oct 29, 4:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.29%chance

3672

OptionVotes

YES

3272

2101

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

30.6%chance

9644

OptionVotes

YES

1506

664

AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033

Mar 8, 7:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12205

OptionProbability

Exponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe

Hyperexponential (indicates push for ASI and some real self improvement loop) singularity / intelligence explosion

Other

Linear (some level of saturation, no AGI imminent)

What will Stephen Colbert do after Late Night ends?

Dec 26, 4:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13204

OptionProbability

He will have a podcast.

Write a book

He will have an online streaming show not associated with a linear TV network.

He will have a show on another traditional broadcast or cable network.

When will it be proven that SAT cannot be solved in linear time?

Oct 17, 3:33 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

3133

OptionProbability

Before 2032

Before 2031

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Will "Detecting Strategic Deception Using Linear Probes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 21, 8:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

2122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Future particle colliders

Aug 17, 3:32 AMJan 2, 4:29 AM

675

OptionProbability

A muon collider will start construction in the US before the end of year 2050.

The International Linear Collider (ILC) will start construction in Japan before the end of year 2050.

A final decision is made by the CERN Council to not proceed with the Future Circular Collider (FCC) project by the end of year 2040.

The Circular Electron Positron Collider (CEPC) project is approved by the Chinese government and features in the five-year plan of 2026-2030.

Bitcoin 4-year price cyclicality regression

Jan 23, 12:56 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

335

OptionProbability

constant

cos (2 pi t)

linear

sin (2 pi t)

Linear News

Prediction markets for Linear

Prediction markets for Linear

Prediction markets for Linear

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029?

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2026?

How many housing units will California authorize, 2025-2028? (linear, 250k-750k)

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033

What will Stephen Colbert do after Late Night ends?

When will it be proven that SAT cannot be solved in linear time?

Will "Detecting Strategic Deception Using Linear Probes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Future particle colliders

Bitcoin 4-year price cyclicality regression

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