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Prediction markets for Linear Regression

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10.06%chance

826508702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

57414

10596

Nuclear power production increases in USA 2023-2033

Oct 16, 7:47 AMJan 1, 5:01 AM

77.81%chance

444914

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1648

694

Will Iran launch the 100th wave of missile/drone strike under "Operation True Promise 4" before March 27?

Mar 18, 1:30 AMMar 26, 3:59 AM

14.33%chance

262524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

244

41

Bitcoin 4-year price cyclicality regression

Jan 23, 12:56 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

335

OptionProbability

constant

cos (2 pi t)

linear

sin (2 pi t)

49

23

15

13

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