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Prediction markets for Linear Regression

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10.7%chance

802468529

OptionVotes

YES

NO

54986

10862

Nuclear power production increases in USA 2023-2033

Oct 16, 7:47 AMJan 1, 5:01 AM

78%chance

434850

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1659

691

Will @spiderduckpig profit growth rate be linear, exponential, or logarithmic

Apr 24, 10:41 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

13637

OptionProbability

Logarithmic

Linear

Exponential

Other

61

38

1

0

Bitcoin 4-year price cyclicality regression

Jan 23, 12:56 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

335

OptionProbability

constant

cos (2 pi t)

linear

sin (2 pi t)

49

23

15

13

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