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Prediction markets for Linear Transformers

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.29%chance

859583594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

88522

8160

Will the first AGI be a transformer model?

Jan 1, 4:54 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

71.43%chance

161309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

205

When will LiquidAI LFM3 be released?

Apr 22, 7:37 AMJul 2, 5:59 AM

3309

OptionProbability

Q4 2026

Q1 2027

Q2 2027

Q2 2026

Q3 2026

89

3

3

2

2

Transparency into any useful internal pattern in LLM by EOY 20XY whose semantics was unfamiliar to AI & cog sci in 20NN?

Oct 23, 1:34 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

422

OptionProbability

By 2036... In 2006

By 2030... In 2006

By 2028... in 2008

By 2028... in 2006

72

59

50

50

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