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Prediction markets for Linear Transformers

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.67%chance

836529327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

69114

9469

Will the first AGI be a transformer model?

Jan 1, 4:54 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

67.57%chance

151249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

947

231

When will LiquidAI LFM3 be released?

Apr 22, 7:37 AMJul 2, 5:59 AM

130

OptionProbability

Q4 2026

Q1 2027

Q2 2027

Q2 2026

Q3 2026

35

18

18

15

15

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