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Prediction markets for Link

Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 that win film festival awards [See link to better qu]

Mar 28, 9:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.18%chance

10728934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4039

1127

Nuclear War 2025: How many of the linked markets resolve Yes?

Aug 12, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

87242

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

4-5

6-8

9-12

13-17

82

8

2

2

2

2

2

2

Nuclear Risk 2025: How many of the 7 linked questions resolve Yes?

Aug 12, 7:05 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

175229

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

4-5

6-7

60

17

7

6

6

4

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.85%chance

82541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10867

9202

Will the person cast as Link in the Legend of Zelda movie be short?

Nov 8, 12:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83.16%chance

131962

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2148

538

Will at least one more murder be linked to the Zizian cult?

Feb 19, 6:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.39%chance

171630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1628

614

Will Australia-Asia Power Link deliver 900 megawatts of electricity to Darwin by 2030?

Aug 23, 9:59 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

19.92%chance

21005

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2005

499

Will credible evidence emerge linking Sahra Wagenknecht to Putin before 2030?

Aug 19, 11:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.84%chance

9896

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1430

699

Will Link speak in the Zelda movie?

Nov 12, 10:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.23%chance

18781

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1628

893

Will Elon Musk tweet a link to RRN by the end of 2025?

Nov 19, 1:41 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

37.14%chance

3301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1301

769

Will an transformer action AI (like adept.ai) be able to navigate and smoothly click all the "expand all" links to archive an entire Slack channel by 2025? (even if just via OBS Studio)

Feb 20, 7:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.49%chance

15236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

953

An algorithm exists that can run on a Game Boy Advance that will pass one of the AGI tests in the linked question

Oct 17, 4:18 AMMar 26, 6:59 AM

40.78%chance

4235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

830

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