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Prediction markets for Liquid AI

What price will Bitcoin hit by March 2026? (add your prediction)

Feb 2, 2:00 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

147855

OptionProbability

$75,001 - $80,000

$80,001 - $85,000

$85,001 - $90,000

$70,000 or below

$70,001 - $75,000

$90,001 - $95,000

$95,001 - $100,000

$100,001 - $105,000

$105,001 - $110,000

$110,001 - $115,000

$115,001 - $120,000

$120,001 - $130,000

$130,001 - $150,000

$150,001 or above

Other

96

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.04%chance

286057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2995

334

Which Rocket Launches Next?

Feb 15, 3:54 AMApr 1, 3:59 AM

164626

OptionProbability

SLS (Artemis II)

Starship (Flight 12)

New Glenn (Blue Bird Block 2)

Vulcan (GPS III SV10)

46

27

26

2

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.58%chance

193559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2640

380

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

Jul 4, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

131949

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2025-2026

2029-2030

2039-2040

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

44

30

27

27

26

26

26

26

Will there be more than 1 year of more than 100 attributable agentic human deaths from AI before a human gigadeath event

Mar 31, 4:54 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

87.5%chance

5281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

79

Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026

Feb 4, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.46%chance

4215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

932

Prediction markets are the hype cycle of 2026

Jan 3, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.44%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

63

Will approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 3:04 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

43.34%chance

7146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

279

171

Will I do something interesting this week according to me

Mar 23, 9:53 AMMar 29, 11:59 PM

77%chance

592

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

55

Which guild will win the RWF in WoW Midnight season 1?

Mar 22, 9:39 PMApr 21, 8:37 PM

269

OptionProbability

Echo

Liquid

Method

45

28

28

Should Manifold allow bots?

Feb 8, 3:54 PM

320

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